No registration required! (Why?)

MP S&P Jan26th




Click image for original size
No Description Entered
We built value higher today after trying to break lower yesterday. To me the market looks like it is coming into balanace and good fill in the distribution higher if we take out the resistance provided by the single prints on Monday. Could you please define TPO buying and selling?

The 25th certainly looked like the market tested the down move and today's price action shows that this test was rejected and so the upside is the accepted direction.

I didn't notice TPO selling today...?
Jan 20th was a trend day that is now becoming a classic. We trend but we have no spill over. the last few days has been about stabilise and distibute. I stand by the count of TPO selling. In itself it is not the most important thing for determing trend but we shall see. Now it is a case of trade location. Maybe I will eat humble pie in which case I shall apologise in advance
I agree the lack of follow through has been the pattern in the SP's for about a year. Could you define what you believe TPO buying and selling to be, I have seen conflicting defintions?
TPO selling or buying is a reflection if you will of the activity of the dominant trader. Now this is where without the LDB it gets less easy. One expects the dominant trader to always be the CTi2 ie the commercial however it depends on the type of day. Broadly speaking TPO selling = precicesly that. Selling and so taking that into account together with emerging VA, size of VA, relative to previous,tails, single prints etc allows one to construct a story about positions and therefore how you can anticipate the probable outcome so that you can position yourself accordingly . Anecdotally I can tell you that the Hedge Fund community were caught coming into Friday short. That is partly why we had Fridays squeeze and therefore for me anecdotally confirms what I had seen in the TPO count of the previous days. What I failed to do was be agressive about contra trend trading this however I stand by my analysis and only add that 8.8% this week up by Tokio is the only reason why we were able to mount the rally. ie an external imbalance came into play .