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comments 5/18/2006 (Thursday)

Time 11:44 EST

Paper short at 1276.75 with stop at 2 points and potential MacGyver short at 1277.75 (i.e. hard stop at 1278.75 and offering at 1277.75 to double position size.)

- Ranked Profiles show very little danger of HOD being breached.
- Ranked Profiles show the trade in direction of RE is higher probability.
- Short is at DVAH
- MacGyver is 1 tick inside HOD
- Stop is 3 ticks above HOD

The 1 Ranked profile (out of 5) that shows this trade not working shows the market with a big move to the upside. 1 out of 5 risk is worth risking for this trade if it pulls off 4 times.
That trade worked to the tick without the MacGyver. Entry was perfect to the tick. My standard strategy with a target of 5 points was achived in about 13 minutes.

The only negative thing about that trade was that it was a paper trade instead of real money.
During the rest of the day we consistently saw the risk to the upside to be very low according to the ranked profiles and I discussed this with mpcentric.

The second time the market came up to the DVAH you could have shorted the market again for exactly the same reasons and made another 5 points off it. In fact if you had held the second trade for longer you would have made 10 points off it.

Why would you have held it longer the second time? Well the ranked profiles later in the day showed even less risk to the upside and more potential to the downside.
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