The Unfinished Game


Two traders, Warren and George, sit in a bar discussing probabilities. They decide to bet $1,000 on who will win the best of 5 coin tosses. For each flip of the coin Warren will win if it comes up heads and George will win if it comes up tails.

After 3 coin tosses Warren is ahead with 2 heads to George's 1 tail when the bar runs out of beer and they decide to abandon the game. What is the fairest way to divide up the pot?

(As a trader, you should be able to work out the probability of the each of these traders winning if they continued to play the game.)
I'd suggest they slip the bartender $200 out of the pot to go in back and fetch more beer, then carry on with the two remaining tosses for $800.

George's chances of pulling ahead are 25%, not remarkably good but still possible. $750 to Warren and $250 for George sounds fair, but George has to leave the tip.
Like my Finnish boss use to say at the bar. Are we here to talk or drink beer? LOL!

I always drive him home. LOL!