So, could there be a possible catalyst to a market explosion? First, read this:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/03/06/the-law-of-unintended-consequences.aspx

So, we see how mark-to-market is perhaps not an appropriate model for these 'securities'. I'll tell you what is even less appropriate, though, and that is marking them to some 'initial value'. If we did that, banks would have things worth perhaps almost zero at full value, and they would all be well beyond fully capitalized. They'd have plenty to spare. Since I suspect this is far from the true case, this would not be right. Banks would be left alone, even loan more money, when they would in fact be grossly undercapitalized. And this would cause the bank stocks to vault up maybe 500% or even 1,000% overnight, in my opinion. That would further boost their situation, and an upward spiral made of nothing could start. I hope against hope this does not happen, as this is how we got in the situation in the first place.

Instead, I hope they come up with some much better 'mark-to-model' system to price them close to their true value. As the article explains, then we can stop pouring our tax dollars in, so they can flow right out to wealthy investors. Same old, same old, on a much bigger scale. The point of this post is that this week they start the 'debate' on what revisions, if any, they may make. If they make any revisions, the banks, and hence the market, would likely explode.

This has me wondering two things. One, everyone knows this, and we all know about buy the rumor, sell the fact (or news). Why is the market still falling days ahead of this debate? They think nothing will come of it? Or, my second thought, the run up has just started, and we are about to get 2-3 days of big up in anticipation, and then 'the news', as they disappoint again, and it gets crushed, or they make changes, and the run goes nuts. Just some thoughts. I will say this is a potential catalyst of a large size, one way or another.