Here's something to look at. The NYSE TICK indicator hit over 1,600 today. By my data, from eSignal, which goes back to 1989, this is the highest reading ever. Look back at what generally happens with such an extreme TICK reading, usually it indicates a strong reversal spot. Many times this happens after an additional day or two of small up, with narrow range days. The last extreme TICK reading was 1/2/09. The market managed to go up about 9 points in the next two days, and set the top for this entire run down on 1/6/09, two trading days later.
Again, maybe this is the start of a new bull, but recall that old stat about 300+ point days in a bear market. This makes number 20, the first one in almost three months. And 300+ is a lot more significant at this level. Given how this was a real 'self-fulfilling prophecy' with every pundit on earth making proclamations on TV about the bottom as it set new bear market lows on those days, there are a lot of people sucked into this rally. I'd be really, really surprised if this wasn't a trap, but the gov is jumping on the bandwagon, talking of dumping the uptick rule and revising the mark-to-market rules, so, as I said elsewhere, that may be the catalyst. No matter what, it's really cool and awesome for trading. Just wanted to point this all out for those that are super-duper long for 'the portfolio'. Don't get too married to anything if it starts to go against you, those are my words of wisdom...
JI
jimkane
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And wouldn't be odd if the ultimate low was right there after all, at 666? Recall Rosenberg from Merrill, a ways back, said his valuation model predicted the S&P fairly valued at 666, that is, the bottom will be at 666. The S&P hits 666 exactly, and huge, monster buy programs hit like crazy. Now, granted, some of our technicals lined up very well with that spot, but I still think all the programs were set to 'buy value' at 666, and up it went. But how odd, 666? The bear market ends at 666? Some how, some way, if that was it, I have to think it was engineered, on purpose, at that exact number, for some reason I can't (and likely don't want to) fathom...
JI
jimkane
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Oops, my mistake, the date was in '09. I fixed it above so no one else will get confused.
JA
jarek
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We almost reached "Roofer's line" at the close yesterday.
And IF the attached count is correct than we are in for a wild run to the downside pretty soon. The majority will take this 5 waves up as a beginning of something serious to the upside and not a wave C ending the correction:
And IF the attached count is correct than we are in for a wild run to the downside pretty soon. The majority will take this 5 waves up as a beginning of something serious to the upside and not a wave C ending the correction:
Click image for original size
MR
mreiserer
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quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
Here's something to look at. The NYSE TICK indicator hit over 1,600 today. By my data, from eSignal, which goes back to 1989, this is the highest reading ever. Look back at what generally happens with such an extreme TICK reading, usually it indicates a strong reversal spot. Many times this happens after an additional day or two of small up, with narrow range days. The last extreme TICK reading was 1/2/09. The market managed to go up about 9 points in the next two days, and set the top for this entire run down on 1/6/09, two trading days later.
It may be just as you said. No follow through today and...
JI
jimkane
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It will be interesting to see. Notice the narrow range doji in the SPX today, after a monster up move and record high cumulative TICK reading (based on the data I have). A very, very ominous looking layout. But, I am ready for anything, like some inane news about the uptick rule or mark-to-market, or Tiny Tim does something with another bailout, or another bank talks some smack.
BTW, since when does it matter if a business is 'profitable' for a few months minus taxes and all losses and write-offs for the period? For example, say a trader says 'I was wildly profitable last quarter, if you take off all my losers and my expenses'. Based on that way of figuring, I've never had a losing day. But that's good enough for the bank to jump up say 50% in a day or two. How idiotic. But, that's the market. Point is, when that can cause that big of a pop, I'm wary of any inane news.
BTW, since when does it matter if a business is 'profitable' for a few months minus taxes and all losses and write-offs for the period? For example, say a trader says 'I was wildly profitable last quarter, if you take off all my losers and my expenses'. Based on that way of figuring, I've never had a losing day. But that's good enough for the bank to jump up say 50% in a day or two. How idiotic. But, that's the market. Point is, when that can cause that big of a pop, I'm wary of any inane news.