Well, I don't know about all you other futures traders, but after the first hour or so the ES has been so dead that I have really started focusing elsewhere. Crude has been moving just fantastic intraday. Look at say tick charts from 13 to 144 range, with higher time charts for 'context'. I just can't sit 4-5 hours waiting for the ES to do something, and then it does nothing. Crude is making big, smooth moves all day long. Keep in mind, this is a big contract, with a lot more margin, and makes big moves. It is also potentially subject to some serious market shock risk. I'm not in any way advising anyone to trade it. But, if you want to see some intraday action instead of falling asleep for endless hours waiting for the ES to do something, and being disappointed, look at crude. I am also piddling around with treasuries and gold intraday, too.
BTW, if you are a stock and ETF trader like roofer, then you have all the action you want. One look at roofer's charts and that is clear. But for you ES only traders...
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
Yep, it's kind of like when I went from ES to the Russell and almost no one would listen, they just kept with the ES when the Russell was trading way, way better. I doubt many will leave the ES, but I at least want to mention that the action isn't in the ES right now.
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
Great charts, roofer. I worked with a student this weekend and we came up with basically the same things using adjusted sets and such. Some of what we covered I plan to show in my upcoming weekend commentary. The read I have is if that was the intermediate top, as I have been suspecting, this rollover start at the key 'test' spot must follow through from here and a big drop needs to happen right from here, no messing around. If this thing starts back up, pushes up to those lines and closes strong, or just gets right over them, all bets are off for me. This is the most critical 'it must now do this...' area I've perhaps ever seen. Seriously, it must essentially collapse from here or it's back to the same manipulation games right back up again. That's my take.
JI
jimkane
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Classic, roofer. And the one you have marked KTK is, of course, my .564, which can be derived from Phi as well as via another method (those of you that know the other method please don't post the derivation in here, I want to keep that quiet, thanks). I couldn't help but let the cat out of the bag on that being a .564 :-)
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
BTW, everyone, I'd prefer the .564 be kept in this forum, please, even though I've let it slip a little here and there. It's a really useful number for me, especially in certain W2 scenarios and such that I show to one-on-one students, and I'd like to not have it get around too much.
RO
roofer
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the only kane fib i show out side the forum are the .886 and 1.128 that i have seen in your more public work...once, by mistake, i left the .685 on a chart.... it has been interesting ,to say the least ,to teach my lone student what i do with the rule that no kane fib will be shown.... the result has been interesting.... he has focused on THE TRADE and the 3 algo's.










