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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I responded to a post here:

http://www.mypivots.com/Board/Topic/5558/1/chart-game-real-vs-random

I'd be curious if some of the crew here went to that site ( http://arora.ccs.neu.edu/v4/tool/login.jsp ) and tried the various simulations and gave a general report as to how they did in here. I don't want to see number scores, I want a general idea of how many you could tell on. Say they have 37 in one series, how many did you get right out of 37 (or out of 15, or whatever)?

I found that once I got the feel of reading the chart fast (it goes pretty fast), I could essentially get just about 100% correct. I even got to be able to get the ones on the front page (which go super fast) right pretty much every time. It seems I really can tell random from real price charts, as I suspected I could. As I said in my post, I created some random charts in the past and found they look close to real to the untrained eye, but there were vast differences.

Now I know if you try this and don't do that well, you may be unwilling to post how you did in here, for fear of ridicule, or to feel 'stupid'. In order for us to learn, we have to get beyond that. No put-downs of any kind would ever be tolerated in here, and to date I don't think we've had any anyway.

Here's my point. I think this is an important experiment, in that it, to me, clearly shows that real price charts are different than random charts that on the surface look essentially identical. If one, with say 36,000 hours of experience, can easily tell them apart as they unfold way faster than even real time, constrained to line charts instead of the more familiar bar charts, and without being able to study the charts, but just do them fast with only seconds to make the decision, well, that really gives a lot of information to us about the possible ordered nature of markets, as opposed to a random viewpoint. If the market is random, how come with both my hands tied behind my back I was still able to tell real from random almost flawlessly?

So, try this and report how you did. I'd like to think most would not do very well, such that it takes a tremendous amount of price action reading skill to tell, but maybe not. Maybe it is quite easy. Either way, it is very interesting, and we can all learn something here I think. Please be honest about what you find.
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Originally posted by jimkane

... I'd like to think most would not do very well...


You were exactly right at least in my case. I trained several times in the slowest mode and got it right about 60% to 70% of time. Haven't even tried the faster modes because even in the slowest one I had some 'no calls' where the time ran out. The most difficult calls for me where when the volatility was not there and both charts where rather flat. Looks like one really needs those thousands of screen hours to be really able to tell the difference.
TO
TonyC
Rep: 99
Posts: 471
pretty entertaining game but I'm not sure how useful this can be from a practical stand point. I was a little disoriented with the relatively fast moving data at first but got a hang of it with some training. I entered all the contests available and did quite well finishing with a score not too far from the top 3's .My best place was 2nd in the Beaver level scoring 30640( I used the TonyC name, u can check the result at the game site) and in the other contest I didn't place but fared nicely though.
It seemed that randomness actually has a 'pattern', or a signature as Jim says, that can be recognized fairly quickly when compared with the other 'real data' chart that have a distinct overall character to it.
I wonder how or if I would be able to recognize a fake from a real with only one single chart running.But when u can compare two charts at same time it sometime is so obvious to me wich one is not real.I found myself clicking the right ones in long streaks and in less than a second or two as soon as they appear ! and it's definitely not by luck. I'm not bragging here but just wanted to say that randomness can be decieving but recognizable. Now, there were some times I also struggled to tell the difference when both chart looked relatively straight with no discernible variance or any wiggle of any sort and i clicked on any chart thinking 50/50 chance is better than not clicking anything at all.But for the most part I was able to tell with relative ease wich of wich.
btw If anybody find any other trading skill game, please share with us.
It's getting fun addicting too, like Tetris.
LE
leont
Rep: 10
Posts: 13
i got two out of three correct. i began to observe patterns such as the real charts held levels,while the "unreal" ones would swing wildly. since i'm not attracted to "games i figured over a large sample other patterns would emerge. just a heads up for more patient souls.