New opening day question!

Are these statements still true? Are there simple exceptions? Any missed or forgotten?

-If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is in favor of long trades.
-If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is in favor of short trades.

One more if I may... re: a quote from BruceM per ES 5/17/2011 Unfilled Gaps...

"Initial point of the downside will be 1322.50 as all the volume before that last price drop happened there...so we can extend initial support down to the O/N low at 21...."

Question...

Does this suggest that opening price direction will usually chase volume?

Hope that makes sense.

If mkt opens above or below pivot point bias?

this is not really a difficult condition to investigate and quantify. I will try to get to it sometime over the weekend.

your original premise

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"Are these statements still true? Are there simple exceptions? Any missed or forgotten?

-If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is in favor of long trades.
-If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is in favor of short trades.
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Based on data 5-24-11 back to June of 2002

roughly 2250 trade days
PivotPoint calculated using RTH only witha 4:15 Close


Open below PP occurred 1013 times
of those, 446 trade days ended the day LOWER than the open.

If Open BELOW PP, Close for the day is Lower than the Open 44% of the time


mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Open greater than PP occurred 1210 times
of those, 624 closed higher than the open

so,
If open ABOVE PP, close for the day is HIGHER than the open 51.6% of the time.

this is what I call a coin-toss- no apparent bias to lean on.

I think paul had a good answer. I would like to go a little off topic but somewhat related. I have on my only 5min to plot every pivot point (50% of the previous bar) of every bar. In the past I just made a visual observation, this is a little better. I wait for a 5min close above/below and place a trade one tick/pip above it. Works well as all P.A. analysis

thanks, charterjoe

Paul... what incredible stats. WOW! Thanks for the reply.
charterjoe. Thank you as well.

So far, I've only plotted on 1min chart. Worked pretty well until yesterday. Good reference, but not as good as last week. I'll give the five min a try.

Question: How do you know this stuff. Books, School, just experience? I'ts overwhelming at times, but always amazing!

for the stats I posted, I ran a small program in TS.

hi, most traders who trade the gap lose money. Usually if a gap starts to fill more than half way the rest of the gap will be filled. And if it's an equity index futures gap filling start measuring from a reversal point (calculate a previous rotation that's approx 1.618%, 2.618% or 4.25% ... depending on trending, e.g., buy / sell programs and your pivot points [see:www.indexarb.com]. Take a look at the ARTICLES LINK at the bottom of www.mypivots.com home page.

My YMM1 trading the gap rules... gaps up to thirty points measure the Fibonacci of the Stretch (see which projections, I.e., 1.618%, 2.618% fit into the previous reversal [again... measure approx reversals] low / high points basis the gap and place stop 20 points beyond the entry. Sometimes use a 20 point stop beyond the gap high...wait

Hi, I did a little looking into gap play methodology. Most traders that play the gap will lose money, e.g., inter-day. The model I read expected a 1 1/2 : 1 reward risk ratio (not a tradeable probaility in my opinion but the less than 30 point gaps basis the 2.618% of the Stretch increases thie intra-day reward : risk ratio) as applied to gaps up to 40 points. Basis YM futures... gaps up to 30 points ... this other guy's gap methodology. Uses a 45 points from the entry which is annother reason why I apply a Fibonacci measurment at the next level + several more points for the stop loss trigger.
The pivot point check list the other trader provided ... fade a move to that level using a 20 point stop to start. Look for scalper confirmation w/in 15 minutes. First target