ES Tuesday 9-3-12

what I'm looking at today -
No video below? Try this link: tuesday.swf

because the 1408 - 1409 is a peak volume area on a bigger time frame it has the potential to chop - that is the place where traders agreed that price was most fair. I mention this because we have Fridays VA high there too and the O/N high is there but I beleive that is a more difficult area to initiate at so I'd be careful.

The better trade is to look for longs under 1402.50 as that is a lower volume node. It would be safer to see them push beyond the 1409 and then get a short signal above to target the 1409.

In summary :

Shorts at 1409 area only with care and a good signal but prefer to sell higher and use 1409 as a target

Longs near 1402.50 and 1400 ( a low volume area from friday not mentioned in video) use that 1405 area as a first target if the buy comes off of the 1402 else we will be buying near the 1400 to use 1402 as a first target
us buyers need price to get above 1403.25 and hold else they will push down into that 1400 to run the stops
air pockets above so long off the 98 flip in delta
look at this bell curve forming at lows with 98.25 at the center...that is the magnet from below....think we will get some of that air near 1400 to test still and am buy now under the 1398
Stumbled across this and thought I'd post the link here. It's more of a macro perspective of a bigger time frame bias for Septembers.

Most folks prob already know this month is historically the worst down month (don't remember if it's frequency or magnitude or both). Anyway, just tossing a larger time frame perspective in. I traded in an office together with a few friends who would actually take September off. That tended to have more to do with the intraday price behavior of stocks than anything else.
they took a while but they are having a nice retest of the low volume in the 1400 - 1402 area now...

look what happened at last weeks RTH lows and also at the IB low failure.....they gave us some hints of what MIGHT happen

we broke down earlier and only trended for 4 - 5 minutes.....that was only the long faders covering and to me it wasn't new sellers,,.that was it...then we just chopped...certainly not what you would want if you were short..

certainly wasn't perfect but you could see how us 1402 long players tried to buy it but couldn't push it we need to cover and it adds SELLING fuel...but that doesn't mean that new sellers hoped on board

very cool !

that mini down trend started at 10:07 and was really over by 10:12...after that we started getting price overlap on the one minute
some afternoon ramblings for those interested...
No video below? Try this link: recap.swf

Thanks for the videos Bruce, it seems fading is not for the faint of heart.

thanks for the videos Bruce, very instructive indeed