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ES Friday 9-29-17


Last trading day of the month and poor highs are above......that 2505 - 2506 is the line to watch and to me is dangerous.....Jewish holiday at sundown may bring more low volume...inside day and 86 % number failure again yesterday which is so cool because inside days are a 15 % probability and the 86 % number fails 14 % of the time.....so interesting to me how that lines up.....1/2 Sd is 6 points off cash close so the 2504 and 2516 on cash would be 86 % numbers...I think we will print the 2516 on cash today and prefer to be a buyer UNDER that 2505 - 2506 number on ES....the 2505 - 2506 is my magnet today but it seems we may open right at it which makes it unusable to me...


here is a video recap and things roaming through my head today
No video below? Try this link: vid1.swf






if for some reason the 05 - 06 fails today then the only volume I see worth mentioning is down at 2502.50....so basically we have two volume spots that are only separated by about 3 points of range
I sold the open print...to try for 05.50....
stopped at one minute high....will try shorts again at 2508 - 2510
on the 08.50 and will add at 2510 and take loss at 2513.....this is small and I do not have a great feel up here today...suppose to go back to the volume from yesterday.......and perhaps they already did and I screwed up the trade
not adding now that we have dropped a bot...concerned that current day high matches all time high...would like to try and take a small piece off at retest of OR high
that's it on all but one contract to see if I can get the minus 4.....here is video I was making and why I scaled at OR high and that poor high as a concern still for last runner...took pivot and 05.25 target...make sure you see the gaps in the data and think about the Volume test concept....what is that ? we will test volume from some previous day and since we are at all time highs the only volume to test would be yesterdays Volume at ten minutes to four......3:50....see first video...
No video below? Try this link: my_trade2.swf






flat at 07.25.....I can't see anything for me from here and that was my one good trade of the day....I think they will firm up and make new highs...that big volume push into the pivot number seems to have been buyers and we should make new highs on the day....that would be my assumption from here if I was going to take another trade...which I am not
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