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ES K.I.S.S 5-18-18


how I have it framed out... a bit late but keep in mind the following

2720.25

2716 _ we may open near here and NOT a great target

2712 - 2711

2709

The video goes into more detail so please watch if u r unclear on anything
No video below? Try this link: frame_out.swf






Thanks for the video, Bruce.

Do you also have a 1-min gap yesterday at 2721.50 and do you use this gap as a potential magnet for today?
yes I have the gap but no longer consider them unfilled if they are cleaned up in the overnight session....
First recap video which goes over the big three Probabilities.....
No video below? Try this link: All_Thrre_probabilities.swf






for the two contract trader...just some ideas.......another two sided day and an open inside the prior days range
No video below? Try this link: twocontracttrade.swf






Watching the two-contracts-video, I had an initial thought to set the SL depended on the OR of the day (today this would have been a SL of 1.75).
But then I realized that the OR can sometimes be larger than the potential profit target.
So that would not be a good idea...

Anyway, great videos that give us something to think about during the weekend...
Nice video Bruce but there's a math error.

2 Contracts *2 point loss= 4 points, twice. So you were in the hole 8 points before the 1st winner hit for 1.75.

3 more 1.75 winners came in along with a 3 pointer.

-4 and -4 = -8+10 = 2 points net for the day, less 12 commissions.

Am I correct in following along?

Thanks Bruce.
I believe you are correct.......sorry........still ok on a challenging day for the method but not as good as described by me............thanks for clarifying that Big Mike ..........
Originally posted by Big Mike

Nice video Bruce but there's a math error.

2 Contracts *2 point loss= 4 points, twice. So you were in the hole 8 points before the 1st winner hit for 1.75.

3 more 1.75 winners came in along with a 3 pointer.

-4 and -4 = -8+10 = 2 points net for the day, less 12 commissions.

Am I correct in following along?

Thanks Bruce.
a critical point: Some times the profit target is so close to the OR high or low that it isn't a very good risk to reward.......you really need to decide what will work for you and where we open in relation to targets can be a very big factor in deciding to take a trade.....unless of course you keep it all mechanical and don't even think of the probabilities that I have mentioned
Originally posted by Aladdin

Watching the two-contracts-video, I had an initial thought to set the SL depended on the OR of the day (today this would have been a SL of 1.75).
But then I realized that the OR can sometimes be larger than the potential profit target.
So that would not be a good idea...

Anyway, great videos that give us something to think about during the weekend...
one last thing ; Ideally you want to have your reward at the very least equal to your risk. Today in the examples we had the risk .25 points more then the reward.....just something to think about and obviously the better way is to have the risk much less then the reward...
I don't mind the opening risk being a bit larger than the target but do favor moving up that stop pretty quickly on ES due to all the reverse chuckling it does.

If I'm up 1 point+ in a trade, my stop moves up at least 1 point.

The winners typically go and those that don't won't find me waiting to take a full loss.

This is one of the reasons I switched to CL. More smooth directionally and I feel my directional filter helps as well.

I trade OR in CL, O/N session gap fill and an all day trade based on trend.
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