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Does the Market Know Something that the Average Investor Can't See?


Is a recession, or worse, another financial crisis, around the corner? Is QT (quantitative tightening) finally wreaking havoc on risk that deep down we all suspected it might?

Here are some comments from Fidelity:

- Bottoms generally form when markets stop going down on bad news. We are likely not there yet.

- Not every 20% bear market turns into something worse. Nor does it always mean recession.

- With price-earnings ratios at 14x - 15x, earnings growth probably at 5% or so, and a Fed that is ready to step aside should its benign forecasts not materialize, I think we are getting fairly compensated for market risks.

Is the market blindly and incorrectly overreacting to the current late cycle narrative of a tightening Fed, a flattening yield curve and slowing growth, and pricing in a recession scenario that isn't going to happen, at the same time that forced selling by momentum traders is having an outsized impact resulting from the current lack of liquidity?
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