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comments 4/18/06 (Tuesday)

Rotation F: First ranked page is yesterday! Second ranked page we believe was ranked first at this time yesterday.
rotation G : We have RE but looking for fade between 1301.5 and 2.5 stop at single fill 3.5. new matches still support-Fails singles fill
Rotation J : news set of matches -suggest a T day look for longs unless dvah gets to hod
Rotation K 4/5 matches show Close on HOD and H bracket singles holding
[13:52 EST - L bracket came down to 1304.00 and based on ranked profiles we talked about getting long but Fed was about to release minutes of meeting at 14:00 - Guy]

Based on the Ranked Profiles Guy took a simulated short at 15:13 at 1314.25 given that the P bracket showed a range of 1 to 7 ticks extension above the M bracket's high. When the new bracket was added the ranked profiles showed that the risk to the upside was high and the potential to the downside was small so the trade was closed at 15:32 for a 1 tick profit.

Time now is 15:53: Refer to K bracket comment above and see that it looks like we will close on HOD as noted there and that the H bracket singles were never touched - exactly that same as the other ranked profiles that were never touched.

Also: Idea to go long in L bracket was a good one but it was right before the announcement. Perhaps after the announcement one could have used a market order once the announcement showed that it wasn't going to cause a sell off but in fact support the rally theory. A very difficult trade to execute.

At 16:00: 4 of the 5 ranked profiles show very close matches to today and the R bracket at least touching the HOD on 1 match and exceeding it on other 3 matches. The other ranked profile is not a good match compared to the 4 just discussed.
With these facts and the timing of this information becoming available a long entry at 13.75 would have been 95% realistic - let's see if we can get to new HOD...
At 16:15: Best case scenario we came within 2 ticks of HOD (6 tick profit if taken 1 tick inside high of move) so didn't fullfill the ranked profiles. Worst case scenario took a 3 tick loss.

What does tomorrow look like?
1. The top ranked profile shows a 15 point gap up the following day.
2. The 2nd ranked profile shows us opening near the close and a long off the VAH was the perfect trade for the day.
3. The 3rd ranked profile shows us opening below the close but the day closes up with RE in the H bracket following an E overlap up.
4. The 4th ranked profile shows us opening below the close and the market trading in a tight Z-day (neutral day) and RE up only happening in the N bracket (post 2:30pm).
5. The 5th ranked profile looks like there was probably a gap up and that the HOD was very near the open and there was probably a good Opening Range short back to the VA and beyond.