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# comments 4/19/06 (Wednesday)

Bracket E (10:30): Top 2 ranked days show very similar patterns. Low created during RE to downside in F bracket. In Q/R bracket we see a rally which makes new HOD in one case. Otherwise these 2 days appear to be Z days focussin on the lower half of the range established during the DEF brackets.

So based on these 2 profiles here is a possible strategy for rest of day, let's see if this plays out and helps us:

Sell the 1312.75 to 1313.75 area.

Buy the 1308.5 to 1306.75 area.

Play the Z day for small targets.

Once Q bracket starts then don't sell - if long then hold position.

So based on these 2 profiles here is a possible strategy for rest of day, let's see if this plays out and helps us:

Sell the 1312.75 to 1313.75 area.

Buy the 1308.5 to 1306.75 area.

Play the Z day for small targets.

Once Q bracket starts then don't sell - if long then hold position.

F Bracket complete: Rank 2 moves to position 1 and rank 1 drops to position 5. Common theme: Day's with high PDTP (Previous Day Trend Percents) show a Z-day which is what we expect.

Based on new information it doesn't look like there is a great risk of the G bracket breaking out of the current range and a slightly higher risk of the H bracket doing this.

Based on new information it doesn't look like there is a great risk of the G bracket breaking out of the current range and a slightly higher risk of the H bracket doing this.

The close of the J bracket at 1pm shows that the I&J brackets are unlikely (according to the 5 ranked profiles) to move more than a few ticks outside of the range to that time of day. In fact it looks like that theory holds for 3 of the days, fails for 1 and partially works for the 5th. Using those figures we can say that we have 3 winners, 1 loser and 1 scratch.

Target expectations should be reduced if trading during these periods as it appears that the range is 2 to 3 points. Breakouts, range expansion and larger moves are more likely to occur during the L&M brackets and beyond.

It is not clear if this type of ranked profile (with the IJ characteristics) is just valid for Z-days or perhaps for all day types.

In order to answer this question we may need to run some stats to determine by how many ticks the I&J brackets exceed an extreme and determine if this is below or above what a random distribution would exhibit. We could compare moves beyond the extreme in one bracket to another to determine what a normal move beyond extreme would be. For example, on average, we would probably expect that M bracket moves beyond extremes to be larger than I bracket moves. If this is the case then we might determine that we can fade the I bracket extreme breakouts.

HOWEVER, we have to remember, that the potential move in the I bracket is way lower than in the M bracket. So if, for example, we were getting 3 out of 4 winners with stops at 2 points and targets at 2 points. This might not be as good as the same trade during the M bracket with 2 out of 4 winners but the winners being 4 points and the stops being 2.

(Just some thought bouncing around in my head.)

Target expectations should be reduced if trading during these periods as it appears that the range is 2 to 3 points. Breakouts, range expansion and larger moves are more likely to occur during the L&M brackets and beyond.

It is not clear if this type of ranked profile (with the IJ characteristics) is just valid for Z-days or perhaps for all day types.

In order to answer this question we may need to run some stats to determine by how many ticks the I&J brackets exceed an extreme and determine if this is below or above what a random distribution would exhibit. We could compare moves beyond the extreme in one bracket to another to determine what a normal move beyond extreme would be. For example, on average, we would probably expect that M bracket moves beyond extremes to be larger than I bracket moves. If this is the case then we might determine that we can fade the I bracket extreme breakouts.

HOWEVER, we have to remember, that the potential move in the I bracket is way lower than in the M bracket. So if, for example, we were getting 3 out of 4 winners with stops at 2 points and targets at 2 points. This might not be as good as the same trade during the M bracket with 2 out of 4 winners but the winners being 4 points and the stops being 2.

(Just some thought bouncing around in my head.)

K bracket closed. Top 5 ranked profiles state: HOD is in. 4 of the ranked profiles show new LOD, 3 of those in N bracket and one in the P bracket.

At close of N bracket we have 5 fairly balanced ranked profiles. 3 say new HOD and 2 say new LOD. However all of the ranked profiles show that the P bracket never crosses the DPOC and trades to the new extreme on the side that it opens on. This supports the theory that we will see a new HOD and not new LOD today. We will see if this theory holds...

Top 4 ranked pages from end of today point to the following day tomorrow:

1. Another Z-Day but shifted higher by 2 to 4 points. (NV up)

2. Another Z-Day but shifted down by 2 to 4 points. (neutral)

3. Another Z-Day but shifted higher by 4 to 6 points. (NV up)

2. Another Z-Day but shifted down by 2 to 4 points. (neutral)

1. Another Z-Day but shifted higher by 2 to 4 points. (NV up)

2. Another Z-Day but shifted down by 2 to 4 points. (neutral)

3. Another Z-Day but shifted higher by 4 to 6 points. (NV up)

2. Another Z-Day but shifted down by 2 to 4 points. (neutral)

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