Help using the MyPivots Crowd Forecasting Feature
Based on the theory that the crowd (the mob, the masses) collectively know better than the individual expert, MyPivots have developed the Crowd Forecasting Feature. Members of the site submit their forecasts about where they think the market will close during the next trading session and once that forecast has been submitted the trader can see the average of all traders that have submitted forecasts for that symbol. That's not all though: If you submitted a forecast in the previous trading session that was within 0.5% of the close (expert) or 0.25% (elite) of the close then you will also be able to see the average of your peer expert/elite traders.
Traders will be able to submit their forecasts after the Daily Notes have been updated for a symbol. For US futures this usually happens between 7pm and 8pm Eastern Time (ET). You will be able to submit a forecast for the following trading session's closing price up until the market for that symbol opens.
Let's take an example. You are an ES trader and the market closes on a Wednesday at 4:15pm ET. The Daily Notes for the ES get updated at (say) 7:07pm ET. At that point forecasting for the ES symbol opens. If you already have the forecasting page open when this happens then you will need to refresh it to see the entry box and forecast button. You will be able to submit a forecast any time from Wednesday 7:07pm ET until Thursday 9:30am ET. Once you have submitted a forecast it cannot be edited or changed. From Thursday 9:30am forecasting will be locked and if you have not submitted you forecast by then it is too late. You will be able to see the average of all forecast for that symbol until the Daily Notes update again between 7pm and 8pm on Thursday evening. At that time you will also be able to view the report page which will tell you where you ranked (distance from close) in your ability to forecast the closing price of the ES. If you forecast within 0.25% or 0.50% of the close then you will have earned the right to see more averages (expert/elite averages) from your peer expert and elite forecasters for the next trading session.
Your First View
- Shows your username. You need to be logged in to reach this page.
- If you have hidden symbols previously (3) you will be able to view them by checking this box.
- Allows you to hide this symbol from view. To show all the symbols that you've hidden then click the "Show Hidden Symbols" check box at the top right of the page. Traders typically hide the symbols that they do not trade to reduce the clutter on the page. When a new symbol is added to our Daily Notes page (for example during contract rollover) it will automatically appear on this page.
- The symbol is linked to its Daily Notes Metrics page.
- The closing price of the last traded session. Should match the closing price on the Daily Notes page.
- This is where you enter your forecast for the next trading session. Your forecast must be within 5% of the previous closing price.
- Click this button to submit your forecast.
- The time at which the market will open. After this time you will no longer be able to submit a forecast.
- Shows the average of all forecasts submitted for the next/current trading session. You will be able to see this value once you've submitted a forecast.
- Shows the average for the expert forecasters from the previous session who have submitted forecasts for the next session. You will be able to see this figure if you have submitted a forecast and you are either one of the experts from the previous session or you have a reputation of more than 10,000 points.
- Shows the average for the elite forecasters from the previous session who have submitted forecasts for the next session. You will be able to see this figure if you have submitted a forecast and you are either one of the elites from the previous session or you have a reputation of more than 10,000 points.
- Shows the number of forecasts that have been submitted for the next trading session. To be able to view this you need to have submitted a forecast.
To make the forecast page more manageable you can hide symbols that you do not trade and are not interested in submitting forecasts for. This will allow you to focus on just the symbols that you trade and know.
To hide a symbol click the X button on the far left of the row.
To see the symbols that you have hidden click the "Show Hidden Symbols" check box on the top right of the page. You will now be able to see all available symbols and the hidden symbols will have a darker background.
If you want to unhide a symbol then when you are in the Show Hidden Symbols view just click the X button again and it will unhide the symbol for you.
Submitting a Forecast
- Note that the format for entering a price must match the display format for the closing price. In this example the Corn Futures are quoted in eighths with a dash between the big number and the fraction. Our forecast in this example is for 555 even but we must still include the -0 after the big number to indicate zero eighths.
- The entry box and the submit button will become disabled after you have submitted a forecast.
- The Average forecast value will appear after a forecast has been submitted.
- If you submitted a forecast in the previous session that was less than 0.50% or 0.25% from the close then you will see values here after you've submitted a forecast.
- These two bond prices are still enabled because the submit button has not been clicked yet. You need to use the same format as the display, in this case thirty-seconds for the fraction in the first and 320nds for the fraction in the second.
Revisiting the page
- If you revisit the forecast page after you have submitted a forecast you will notice that the forecast entry box has been removed.
- The button has also been removed and the acknowledgement that you have submitted a forecast will appear there instead.
- If you hover the mouse over any element on the page you should see a tool-tip popup to help you with any item on the page.
- The average forecast closing price will have been updated with the results from other traders who have submitted forecasts since you last visited the page. After the Open time has past nobody will be able to submit anymore forecasts so the Average, Expert, and Elite forecasts will not change after this time.
Premium and High Reputation View
If you have 10,000 or more reputation points then after you submit a forecast you will see the expert and elite forecasts. If your previous forecast was not an expert or elite forecast then the background color of the expert or elite forecasts will be light red. You will also see the number of forecasts that have been submitted for this trading date.