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ES short-term trading 06-15-10


This is the week of JUN futures expiration.

Comments based on SEP futures...

Whatever the case may be, the O/N sure looked like a successful DB test of last week's High and I have to guess right now that a test of yesterday's H is in play.
Look at the 9:35 bar. Is is an overlaping bar creating a pocket between 93 and 93.5. I'm watching that.
potential intraday stumbling (some consolidation) point

would be

1095.25 (.4*5day ATR added to yesteday's close)
1097.25, yesterday swing failure
1097.75, the .618 extension of the first 15 min opening range for the RTH.


seems like strength in the euro is helping, if that fails and reverses, upside doubtful
it's a grouping of resistance right here 95-97.

punch through can easily force some short-covering for couple of points.

5m chart still showing HHs and HLs.
first LL in place and defensive.

inability to tag 97.75 raising doubts, but I personally need to see a DT or a swing failure to the upside. Now though, if the current RTH swing low is broken, test of first 15m L would be expected. Swing Low was 93.25, good call sz

OR15min low is 91.25

The market opened in a gap up but the gap was not signficant (less than .4*5datr added to yesterday's close, on this basis alone, (no other factors taken into account), historically, gap has odds of 6 or 7 out of 10 of filling. (would mean a print at 86.00 before the end of the day)

As far as I could tell, there was no true "Bruce air" in the rth because of the way the bars overlapped.

Jeez, I don't understand how you can post so often, Bruce.
I'm long at 93...

I think we'll test yesterdays high sometime today.

The low from 1084.25 plus DAR gives a high range around 1101.75 which is right there at yesterdays high
out at 95.25
Originally posted by sjzeno

Look at the 9:35 bar. Is is an overlaping bar creating a pocket between 93 and 93.5. I'm watching that.


can you explain this set-up?
-perfect call
that is all BruceM, i take no credit.

here is the thread to learn about it

http://www.mypivots.com/Board/Topic/5507/1/price-bar-overlap
sjzeno,

Thanks for the link.

I am familiar with the air, but technically, I don't think that was "air," because the close for that second bar of the rth session was not a new high for the day.

technically, I do not think there has been any "air" in today's RTH in either direction... but maybe I have misunderstood Bruce's definition.
there have been no airpockets today as I have defined them..trading to see if they can retest 95 soon
3 Dar is just a guidline...we need to now be thinking where at least 45 - 50 points of weekly range is going to trade . If Monday is the low then we will see 1025 this week and higher. Breakout was 1101,50 print...so if we close below that on Wednesday ( which is the 3 war confirmation day) then we will see 1075 this week.


I was doing indoor surfing as I am on a mini vacation with the family...I tried one failed trade today from my laptop so I won't be doing any more trades till Thursday///Glad I missed the trend day today...we are now only about 5 points above mondays high so lets not get carried away with the trend idea and higher prices just yet.