No registration required! (Why?)

ES Short Term Trading 8-17-2010


Range Based S/R

R1 = 1085.25
S1 = 1062.50
R2 = 1089.125
S2 = 1058.625

Steenbarger Pivot = 1075.50

Prices have already traded to and a bit beyond R1 in the O/N. Will be telling if VWAP can support prices when RTH opens.
still working off the 87.50 - 90 area and O/N high confirmed it...below is 82.50......gotta watch that O/N high....
if they happen to run out that O/N high again then watch to see if we get some divergences.....for the fade...lots of volume up at the 87.50 and the 90 number...will repost that MP chart later..
volume peak on the breakout from 87.50...I still want to look for the fade and a retest of that number..will watch the 90 print if/when it comes......to look for shorts...other number up top is 95 !! not adding on this fade
Bruce,

You mentioned one time when trips are left on the screen usually get a 8-9 pt move. How do you handle that situation? Trips at 1084.25.
gotta be very selective on any fades up into the 90 because we had a low range breakout of the first hour with a gap higher open
starting at 91 short...89.50 is one minute air and 87.50...need to be careful as it could keep running higher....old single prints above market
Former S/R 1094 top so far, keying off that and 1088.
1097 50% retrace and matches a S/R line. 1098 and 1100 above.
1092.25 and 1090.25 below.
Gann date.
Originally posted by BruceM

gotta be very selective on any fades up into the 90 because we had a low range breakout of the first hour with a gap highr open


I know this all seems ex post facto, but I was in the midst of writing it when I had a phone call from one of my sisters concerning my 91 year old mother who is not in the best of shape. That phone call took priority.


Bruce,
when you say "low range breakout" are you referring to the 9:30-10:30 hour being such a "small" range? (I think small range would be a better descriptor than "Low range" because "Low" connotes price) I have read your notes on the "low" range bars, but I was wondering if you could comment a little on the quotation in this post.

Other matters
I have mentioned before that I have noticed that when Price hits the 618 extension of the Monday fibs that odds are very high for a move to the full, 100% extension of Monday's Range (meaning Monday's RTH range added to Monday's High.)

FIbs based on Monday's range were

My Label, UP 0.618 (would be 1.618 on a charting tool because range itself represents a "1" in front of the decimal, so for charting tool equivalents add a "1" for labels below)

Monday Fibs

UP 1.618 1104.25

UP 1.000 1095.25 (is highly possible this week due to price printing above 618 extension)

UP 0.618 1089.75 (Hit today makes full extension likely)

Monday High 1080.75
Monday Low 1066.25

1080.75 - 1066.25 = 14.50

14.50 added to Monday's High = 1095.25

1095.25 is the full extension of Monday's RTH range.

****
Bruce, you have mentioned something about viewing Monday and Tuesday as one range, but could you explain how you view that range? How you use that M-T range.

The reason I bring it up is because I have poured over years of charts to realize and have confidence in the observation I related about the Monday Fibs, and maybe Tuesday PA (where price moves relative to the Monday Fibs) can be predictive of whatever it is that you have observed when it comes to viewing Monday and Tuesday as a single range. (like if Tuesday prices couldn't get past 618 extension then reversal of price direction more likely, etc.),

OK, that's it from long-winded Paul
Done trading for today.

FWIW, looks to me like 1105 is the first "real" resistance that I see. Based on 8/11 and 8/6.

Good luck to all
trying short again from 97.75..95.50 is target will update later other failed campaigns..
thanks Mike for coming through with the goods...I appreciate it
Originally posted by Big Mike

This took some doing-LOL. This is all I have on my charts. K.I.S.S.

Base- rally-rise out of 1092
First test of support at 1105 broke
Next fresh retest of support was 1092 (target) broke

Click image for original size
Big Mike 11 Aug 2010 Mini S&P Chart