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ES short term trading 1-11-11


Things I'm watching in the Rth session:

1274 - 75 - this is last weeks high, the R2 level today and a key Rat.

We are on target to open outside of yesterdays range so I'll be watching for the following:

1/2 a gap fill within the first 30 - 60 minute
a retest of the R1 level in the first 30 minutes - if we open above

Watching to see if we trade on both sides of the Opening range

These will be the clues that mean reversion trading is working and odds DO NOT favor a gap and go type of day.

Report at 10 so initial shorts will be lighter..

Other key area is 68 - 70 as that is yesterdays high and the midpoint of this big range we seem to be in ( 1275 - 1258.50)also that key R1 level sits there
final target is 66.25...or 71.50 whichever comes first...may be a bit early for a sell off and we still need to keep in mind all those trades that came through open print
ideally we'd like to see a 30 minute close below the hour lows....the Nq will need to keep it's closes under the high of yesterdays trade....


problem is how do we know this isn't blow off volume or Tick extremes...Look at those suckers!! big for this time frame
flat at 70.25....resting now..
It seems like Down volume seems to be much higher than UP volume. Just an observation....
Geez I'm back from lunch to find that my stop got hit! Oh well, nothing gain, nothing lost.
If it moves below 1267.75 I will go short for a 1264.00 and possibly 1262.00 objective.
On the long side? I will just wait till it gives me a bit more data.

ES trading 1270.00 @ 13:48
Originally posted by BruceM

ideally we'd like to see a 30 minute close below the hour lows....the Nq will need to keep it's closes under the high of yesterdays trade....


problem is how do we know this isn't blow off volume or Tick extremes...Look at those suckers!! big for this time frame
Short 1267.75 moving stop down to 1268.75.

ES trading 1266.75 14:05
Originally posted by i1hunter

Geez I'm back from lunch to find that my stop got hit! Oh well, nothing gain, nothing lost.
If it moves below 1267.75 I will go short for a 1264.00 and possibly 1262.00 objective.
On the long side? I will just wait till it gives me a bit more data.

ES trading 1270.00 @ 13:48
Originally posted by BruceM

ideally we'd like to see a 30 minute close below the hour lows....the Nq will need to keep it's closes under the high of yesterdays trade....


problem is how do we know this isn't blow off volume or Tick extremes...Look at those suckers!! big for this time frame

Moving stop down again to B.E. ES trading 1265.75 14:07
Originally posted by i1hunter

Short 1267.75 moving stop down to 1268.75.

ES trading 1266.75 14:05
Originally posted by i1hunter

Geez I'm back from lunch to find that my stop got hit! Oh well, nothing gain, nothing lost.
If it moves below 1267.75 I will go short for a 1264.00 and possibly 1262.00 objective.
On the long side? I will just wait till it gives me a bit more data.

ES trading 1270.00 @ 13:48
Originally posted by BruceM

ideally we'd like to see a 30 minute close below the hour lows....the Nq will need to keep it's closes under the high of yesterdays trade....


problem is how do we know this isn't blow off volume or Tick extremes...Look at those suckers!! big for this time frame


Another break even! My broker is making all the money today LOL Good for him, prosperity goes around and around

Originally posted by i1hunter

Moving stop down again to B.E. ES trading 1265.75 14:07
Originally posted by i1hunter

Short 1267.75 moving stop down to 1268.75.

ES trading 1266.75 14:05
Originally posted by i1hunter

Geez I'm back from lunch to find that my stop got hit! Oh well, nothing gain, nothing lost.
If it moves below 1267.75 I will go short for a 1264.00 and possibly 1262.00 objective.
On the long side? I will just wait till it gives me a bit more data.

ES trading 1270.00 @ 13:48
Originally posted by BruceM

ideally we'd like to see a 30 minute close below the hour lows....the Nq will need to keep it's closes under the high of yesterdays trade....


problem is how do we know this isn't blow off volume or Tick extremes...Look at those suckers!! big for this time frame



Just an observation, but the 66 level was probably to fill the gap left from the close yesterday?
absolutely...according to my IB data the gap would have filled officially at the 65.50 number which is todays low to the tick.....I was using the 4PM close at 66.25 as a target .

The cool thing about today is there were a bunch of clues to keep us off the long side although it wasn't perfect...seldom is...and actually was a difficult hold

we've had 5, 30 minute bars trade at the open print today so far.....not really the kind of thing you want to see if you thought we were trending..


The 30 minute had one close below yesterdays highs in the ES and so far has reversed that....it also had only one close below the 60 minute low...just pointing that out for reference in case anybody sees any value to the idea..


so those daring enough to be trading now will try to fiqure out if this Neutral day will close at an extreme or in the middle of the range. If we use the NQ as a reference then I would be guessing towards the low part of the range..just a guess for me..not trading it
Originally posted by optimusprime

Just an observation, but the 66 level was probably to fill the gap left from the close yesterday?
thanks for the good words.....I think the biggest problem with trading is trying to figure which are THEE best numbers to look at....this is just me babbling and not directed at you...so that's why I set up zones of confluence.....It's very hard to get exact tops and bottoms but we can come up with areas that many folks are looking at.......that's why I can't use fibs and other projection methos..it's not that they don't work, they certainly do as we have seen Kool blue use them for years,,,,,,It's just that my simple brain can only process so much...it is already overloaded enough...

ah, chasing girls...I still do that but only two girls...my wife and my "almost" two year old..Good luck( ;q
Originally posted by i1hunter

Great work Bruce! Two things I missed today that should have me trading with you in the down side. 1) R2 resistance at 1273.75, Es spent some time in that area. You had it right.
2) This afternoon I was short and overlooked yesterday's close at 1265.50. The ES hit that 1265.50 and bounced right back, I missed reversing my position, short term oscillators where oversold too! ....... Looking forward to tomorrow, God willing,

Done chasing the market, now time to go chase the girls, YeeeHaaa!