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ES short term trading 1-11-11


Things I'm watching in the Rth session:

1274 - 75 - this is last weeks high, the R2 level today and a key Rat.

We are on target to open outside of yesterdays range so I'll be watching for the following:

1/2 a gap fill within the first 30 - 60 minute
a retest of the R1 level in the first 30 minutes - if we open above

Watching to see if we trade on both sides of the Opening range

These will be the clues that mean reversion trading is working and odds DO NOT favor a gap and go type of day.

Report at 10 so initial shorts will be lighter..

Other key area is 68 - 70 as that is yesterdays high and the midpoint of this big range we seem to be in ( 1275 - 1258.50)also that key R1 level sits there
thanks...it is Tuesday isn't it..? LOL...thanks for that..should be a.M ..and no close below....but Nq still holding it back..unable to get back to open print in NQ YET!!

still can't deny that this fade is a tricky one..


critical area...73 - 75...lets see if new buying can be ignited above here....that wil determine that this fade is gonna be bad..so far the volume spike came IN FRONT of the key area and not above
Originally posted by rburns

its AM Bruce:}
I'm long from 1270.25 and counting the waves. I see a 5 E.W. in my 5M chart. Wave 1 starting at 10:10. currently I see it's forming wave 4. If it is, it should not go below 1271.00. Then up towards the objectives MonkeyM, mentioned earlier.

ES trading 1272.75 @11:26
I for got to mention that I see a wave 4 (of 3 from a larger 5W that started yesterday) I'm Ok a wave counting but not an expert. The best thing is that they are congruent with the numbers posted this AM.
This supposedly "wave 4" should not move below 1270.25. ( I said 1271.00 before. )
Will see, my stp is at B.E. --- If this is unfolding in the wave count, then the objective at 1277/1280 mybe late in the session.

ES trading 1271.75 @ 11:39
Originally posted by i1hunter

I'm long from 1270.25 and counting the waves. I see a 5 E.W. in my 5M chart. Wave 1 starting at 10:10. currently I see it's forming wave 4. If it is, it should not go below 1271.00. Then up towards the objectives MonkeyM, mentioned earlier.

ES trading 1272.75 @11:26
there trying to digest all that volume you can see at 11 a.m on your one minute chart....so far the retest down does not seem to be bringing strong buyers back in..

I'm also thinking about context and that is how much we have traded back through the open print...seems excessive for us to expect any kind of meaningful and quick rally or decline..hour breakout traders have failed so far too

I'll settle for the trips down at 69.75....a 12 noon close outside of the hour highs will be bad for us shorts
Lunch time. The 4w is unfolding in an a,b,c,d,e fashion. (Maine lobster for lunch hmmm) E
Originally posted by i1hunter

I for got to mention that I see a wave 4 (of 3 from a larger 5W that started yesterday) I'm Ok a wave counting but not an expert. The best thing is that they are congruent with the numbers posted this AM.
This supposedly "wave 4" should not move below 1270.25. ( I said 1271.00 before. )
Will see, my stp is at B.E. --- If this is unfolding in the wave count, then the objective at 1277/1280 mybe late in the session.

ES trading 1271.75 @ 11:39
Originally posted by i1hunter

I'm long from 1270.25 and counting the waves. I see a 5 E.W. in my 5M chart. Wave 1 starting at 10:10. currently I see it's forming wave 4. If it is, it should not go below 1271.00. Then up towards the objectives MonkeyM, mentioned earlier.

ES trading 1272.75 @11:26

there is a ledge at 71.50 so I expect to see 71.25 again where I will need to firm some of this up as that was initial entry...

note the inability to get a 30 minute close above the On high on a gap up day.....so far!
LOL reading my previous post I notice that my time was posted incorrectly, it should have said: ES trading 1271.75 at 11:59. Not 11:39.-
Very little progress since then. ES trading 1272.25 @ 12:24

will be back after lunch...



Originally posted by i1hunter

Lunch time. The 4w is unfolding in an a,b,c,d,e fashion. (Maine lobster for lunch hmmm) E
Originally posted by i1hunter

I for got to mention that I see a wave 4 (of 3 from a larger 5W that started yesterday) I'm Ok a wave counting but not an expert. The best thing is that they are congruent with the numbers posted this AM.
This supposedly "wave 4" should not move below 1270.25. ( I said 1271.00 before. )
Will see, my stp is at B.E. --- If this is unfolding in the wave count, then the objective at 1277/1280 mybe late in the session.

ES trading 1271.75 @ 11:39
Originally posted by i1hunter

I'm long from 1270.25 and counting the waves. I see a 5 E.W. in my 5M chart. Wave 1 starting at 10:10. currently I see it's forming wave 4. If it is, it should not go below 1271.00. Then up towards the objectives MonkeyM, mentioned earlier.

ES trading 1272.75 @11:26


I'm not always comfortable when a ledge starts looking obvious....at 12:30 we will have three matching lows at 1271.50....so that becomes obvious and THEY know people like to target them IMHO...watching the closes for direction but this is boring and need to take lunch soon
took all off but two at 70.50...ideal next target will be triple run but not convinced of anything in this low volume slop..that was a difficult hold but the ledge is run now...note the inability to get any closes on 30 minute above hour highs and O/N highs
one more off at 68.25.that was triple run and 50 % gap fill finally.and beyond.......one left...trailing at 50 % back on the day...Nq has made new lows for the day and never traded back to it's open print today!!
thanks for the good words.....I think the biggest problem with trading is trying to figure which are THEE best numbers to look at....this is just me babbling and not directed at you...so that's why I set up zones of confluence.....It's very hard to get exact tops and bottoms but we can come up with areas that many folks are looking at.......that's why I can't use fibs and other projection methos..it's not that they don't work, they certainly do as we have seen Kool blue use them for years,,,,,,It's just that my simple brain can only process so much...it is already overloaded enough...

ah, chasing girls...I still do that but only two girls...my wife and my "almost" two year old..Good luck( ;q
Originally posted by i1hunter

Great work Bruce! Two things I missed today that should have me trading with you in the down side. 1) R2 resistance at 1273.75, Es spent some time in that area. You had it right.
2) This afternoon I was short and overlooked yesterday's close at 1265.50. The ES hit that 1265.50 and bounced right back, I missed reversing my position, short term oscillators where oversold too! ....... Looking forward to tomorrow, God willing,

Done chasing the market, now time to go chase the girls, YeeeHaaa!