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ES on 3-18-11


Sometimes you get lucky. Got home from work and re-shorted the 1269 for an O/N trade, and placed order to cover @1262, which was the low during RTH. Just got back from family dinner, and lo and behold, my short was covered at 1262. Then ES shoots up to 1279+. New short placed at 1279.50. Whoever was watching that double bottom at 1262 early tonight and went long - congrats! Setting up for nice trade tomorrow.
going to try a short at 1279.50-1280.00..chart soon
sorry for the late post, my computer froze on me....got long at 76...had a 76 2.61 projection of the 5min chart (off of the 1287.5 to 1283 move)...also volume dvg into Bruce's 75.5 area...got half off at 77.75 and trying to take the other half at the air fill level (5min ) of 78.75....sorry for the late post again hope at least the reasoning behind the trade helps
my bad... order to sell is 1281.25
that is the 2.618 on the one min chart and the median line on the 5 min chart... looking for this 'correction' to continue to 1274.25 minimum and more likely 1273ish....
that was 76.25, the entry level...fingers not following brain's orders today
well once again i 'outsmarted' myself! Changing my mind at the last second.. and missing a good entry!... I guess i'll never learn!!!
Thanks for this DROB but I actually made a critical error which caused me some emotional pain and some draw down....


My 9 year old is off school today so I slept in a bit later than usual. I didn't have my charts and stuff fired up until 9:15 EST....which is late !!! So I missed one of my own numbers and that was the 81 number.....These numbers have been posted in the threads for a few days now if anyone needs to check on my error....They are just the big volume zones...

perhaps the most interesting thing is all that great volume that came in at the open ......and divergent highs from Overnight trade and volume once again at the 84 number in O/N trade...CONFIRMS the 84 number for us.



For me I'd prefer to have volume numbers further apart as I want to try to get a bigger move with runners...in this case the numbers were too close together...only 3 points between 81 and 84....I'd prefer to see a 5 - 6 point spread on the volume zones.....but we need to be objective and work with what we see....

We also need to get up on time and get prepared mentally and physically.....stuff we all know and today was my turn to mess that up..
I was unprepared for that 81 area and it got in my way...let me leave it at that.....anyway the point of this is about preperation and I don't want to go into specific trades I took but here is the chart...


Originally posted by DRob

Perfect call from the 84 level Bruce, just like a magnet =)


Originally posted by BruceM

76 - 78 is first volume I see on downside today


Click image for original size
volzone
that's great and thanks for explaining...I don't think anyone really cares if a post is late as long as we are learning........afterall, we gotta take the trades and posting shouldn't be the priority...and nice fade!!
Originally posted by apk781

sorry for the late post, my computer froze on me....got long at 76...had a 76 2.61 projection of the 5min chart (off of the 1287.5 to 1283 move)...also volume dvg into Bruce's 75.5 area...got half off at 77.75 and trying to take the other half at the air fill level (5min ) of 78.75....sorry for the late post again hope at least the reasoning behind the trade helps
lol.. glad to see someone elae is 'out of sort' today!!! Must be the full moon! I'll SELL 1279.00 (I MEAN IT!) IF THEY FEEL SORRY FOR ME!
bRUCE, SEE HOW THE ONE MIN VOL JUST DROPPED WAY OFF? GETTIN READY FOR A SHORT TERM TOP HERE... JUST HOPE IT GOES TO 79!
Greetings!

Great stuff here. Keep up the good work.

My bias today was long. I made two trades. Apparently there is a "ban" on non real-time trades, so I will simply ask for comments on the next few day's direction, starting on Monday 21 Mar.

My thoughts were we were going to at least hit 1292 today before heading back down. Generally speaking I only trade 1 - 2 times a day and place a single order that upon execution, triggers an OCO. After my first successful trade for the day, I entered my second trade at roughly 0905 hrs EST with a buy at 1283.50. My profit target was 1288.00. Obviously that did not hit as the high on the 0925 hrs bar is 1287.25.

The above is one of the disadvantages of not watching the ES tick by tick (I gave that up after several years of futures trading). My current method is more like fishing and no trades or a trade every other day is fine by me. I adopted this method from my success with swing trading stocks and I'm surprised at how well it works.

So, my post is a small introduction as well as a desire to solicit members thoughts on direction for the next week. I'll throw my hat in and say we'll visit 1300 before re-visiting the lows established this week.