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ES 5-12-2011


Developing RTH volume profile for the week. Notice relative volume on the bottom increases as prices drop and decreases as prices rebound. The profile itself is interesting, kind of like clumps with not much in between.


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es30min05122011
About 7:32 there was a sudden heavy 1.5+ drop and volume about doubled. What or rather "who" causes this?
Originally posted by TravelinTrader

I was taught/told to never add to a so called "loosing" trade....


I agree. I feel like there is such a fine line between "adding to a loser" and "defending your position". Repeatedly adding to a loser is how you go broke. Intelligently adding at a defined spot(s) and willing to get out if it continues to go against you is a much more winning strategy.

Daniel
Originally posted by TradeQueen

About 7:32 there was a sudden heavy 1.5+ drop and volume about doubled. What or rather "who" causes this?


Sorry... I'm west coast 10:32 Eastern. And I should of posted in questions, but it seemed relevant at the moment.
Originally posted by TradeQueen

About 7:32 there was a sudden heavy 1.5+ drop and volume about doubled. What or rather "who" causes this?


IMHO, I have the bottom of my VA at 1336.50, and it was also the RTH high. Thus, resistance/sellers there.

Finding support at yesterday's Low and 52.8% pullback now (1332.50-33)... or not.
Originally posted by TradeQueen

Originally posted by TradeQueen

About 7:32 there was a sudden heavy 1.5+ drop and volume about doubled. What or rather "who" causes this?


Sorry... I'm west coast 10:32 Eastern. And I should of posted in questions, but it seemed relevant at the moment.


That was right after the gas report. I think you'll find there often is some reaction then.
Originally posted by beyondMP
That was right after the gas report. I think you'll find there often is some reaction then.


Good eye. Do you feel there is a larger reaction from Nat Gas Storage or Crude Oil Inventories? I find that the crude oil report doesn't seem to have much of a reaction recently.
First high volume on my Footprint chart today

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2011 05 121116
Originally posted by neoikon

Originally posted by beyondMP
That was right after the gas report. I think you'll find there often is some reaction then.


Good eye. Do you feel there is a larger reaction from Nat Gas Storage or Crude Oil Inventories? I find that the crude oil report doesn't seem to have much of a reaction recently.


I don't know the answer to that question. I only know there usually is some reaction to those reports.
There is the daily gap fill (39.75) and the top of my VA (39.25). $BANK is racing to get its GF. I would expect a rollover here up to 40.50.
Thats great to hear and very well said. We don't "talk" much of probabilities in these threads but probably should. For me the key is finding those trades where you don't mind losing.

It's finding that edge where if the trade goes wrong or doesn't work to it's full potential I'm ok with the loss. It may just not be what the trading gods want that day or on that particular campaign. So the probability didn't work out that time. It can't be a big deal in your mind to have a loss. If it is then you are either trading with an improperly funded account or using setups or stops that don't fit your personality. You need to be ok with your losses to make it in this business without losing your mind.

Which brings up for me the subject of market orders. I love them ! I know I'm getting in or out....one less thing to gaze upon the screen. Less confusion. No waiting for confirmation etc so I can get on with managing the trade.

I've heard too often " the market missed my entry by one tic etc" then the market goes on for a good move....so I like to get in. What is the price to pay for missing just one good trade ? You can still miss trades with market orders too but I don't think as many...

This mornings buy at the print of 28.75 is a good example....of course I didn't get filled at that price but I didn't miss the long trade either..I got filled at 29.25.....where a limit order placed at the Overnight lows probably wasn't filled for most people and they missed the long. So I'm "giving" the market two tics to make 2.5 points or so per contract profit or more on that one...no big deal to me..

Just tossing that out there...and for those who are looking at a basic useful trading concept for today think about this....

We are holding ABOVE the overnight lows. We are holding above yesterdays RTH lows.....so the pressure was/ is pointing to support ..a very basic concept but there is no reason to overcomplicate things most days.


And thanks for the good words Travelin.....Hunting for shorts above 40 now..gap in the data at 38.75...!!
Originally posted by TravelinTrader

Really nice trading BruceM. Preciate you posting. Interesting your comments on planning your expectations. I was taught/told to never add to a so called "loosing" trade. And becuase of that went through a period of heavy losses due to too tight of stops. It's harder psychologically to get back into a trade once stopped out then it is to manage a trade based on higher probability moves in the market that have their basis in known support/resistance areas, whether they are based on volume profile, fib numbers, pivot points or whatever. Now I scale in and scale out and am finally profitable.
Like with most sup/res, they aren't always exact. Sometimes it comes in a little short and looks like a 50%, sometimes it goes a little long and gets closer to the 61.8%. But in all, I feel more comfortable with the 52.8.

BUT, you have to make sure you are measuring from the right direction. 52.8 in one direction is the 47.2 in the other direction. Using today's data, measuring from the PP up to R1, you see support at that 52.8 level. If I had measured from R1 to PP, then the level would be too high.



I have a script that auto-calcs the fib levels between the pivot levels. For example, if I double click in between PP and R1 (but closer to R1) then the levels are calculated originating from R1. If I click closer to PP, then they are outputted originating from PP, etc. Great time saver.

Can you expand more on what you mean about "combining momentum with the pivots"?

Daniel


Originally posted by grednfer

Neo....
Its good to hear someone from the pivot site actually uses these thingees.......I have an algo background....and have only recently incorporated a pivots (go figure right?).....I really like it.....Simple, easy to calc and visualize and TEST!, yet dynamic.....

I've haven't tried the 52% factor, but I use 50% just like another pivot.......it pops up alot.

Like tonight....NQ AH top is 2308=((R1-PP)*.5)+PP......its works alot....

I really like combining momentum with the pivots....but I have to adjust the numbers so I get movement through the pivot....I haven't perfected that yet(need more data).....Its just a fixed adjustment....on ES it seems to be 1.5-2 points....

Very Cool.....