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ES Friday 7-19-13


For me there is only one main idea and that is the retrun to 1678.75 in the day session. The best trades will be sells above 80.25 or buys below 77. especially if they haven't traded to the 78.75 magnet yet.

If either of those numbers trade in the last few minutes of the Overnight session I will take a small postion but prefer the day session.. Other wise I will look for mean reversion early on today.


My strange way of calculating statistics ( in my head) has me thinking that there is OVER a 96% probability of the 78.75 hitting at some time in todays session.

here is a bigger view with other reference points..price action alone is showing some nice numbers so far this summer
Click image for original size
friday
besides my probability, all the volume is at the center of the On range....so buys under that 78.75 are even more attractive as the volume node is at 79...strong magnets !!
I'm trying from 77 in O/N...keeping it small till day session
sold longs and reveresed to short at 80.25
above 82.50 if it comes are almost automatic sells as long as the 78.75 hasn't printed...this weak pop up above that 80.25 is the sell zone
there we go..that's the dog and pony show for me today...if I could trade like this everyday I would soon own the world !!
nice trading bruce have a good weekend
thanks Duck..I'm gonna stick around a bit but won't trade til after 10 a.m....even then it will be SMALL...it's friday !!
because of the current pattern , I think it's best to wait until we see new highs or lows before thinking about a trade...here is an updated chart...the lines haven't changed..


Important to note that even though we had the 78.75 as a magnet it is NOT a line on the chart...the lines are the ideal points to initiate from

I changed the scale to 5 minute....for some clarity...I've taken over my wifes laptop so I can post some visuals this week but hope to be able to post normal charts again soon
Click image for original size
newer
selling the 83.25 ..pitbull number
there are two main volume nodes...those are 80.50 and up at 85....these are the magnets.....the breakout traders above 82.50 will try to push for that...the reversion folks want it back to 80.50...and since I have no idea who will win - I AM JUST WATCHING...if i was gambling it would be back to the 80.50..
I think they want to push for that 85 now..especially looking at the way they rejected that 80.50 on the last test down..either way the 82.50 holds the real key now...will it become support ?

I really don't like any of this...I DO like that it's Friday !! Not trading anymore today