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ES Thursday 12-4-14


How my zones look for the overnight and Thursday trade...some nice confluence
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for thursday
i got caught in a long at 63.25 but had to be really patient and wait for the market to get back. was finally able to exit at 65.5
I thought you all were nuts for even mentioning going long today. I also figured the single prints would be ignored. Congrats to you all who got a piece of that. Wow, nice job Bruce. I sure missed the boat today! I quit in the overnight so no harm here. Got caught up with the family. Good thing I guess. I still work a day job so I'm not here everyday, but I'm sure happy to be here today to see you all in action. After the fact... Very entertaining. I'm babbling, so I'll go. Again.. Nice trading and again congrats.
not sure if I understand your question...I don't subscribe so I am not sure if what you need is part of any of their data packages
Originally posted by apk781

yep, u can't be too cautious with those strategies imo...when the profit is there u have to take it...

also, is there a way to get that median imp volaitlity from that website Bruce? would like to see the performance of just naked strangles vs the spreads during various periods of time

Originally posted by BruceM

just a quick FYI.....options that we sold for 140 are only worth 85 so you would have been wise to either close this out or at least part of your position on the open today....I will set up another one near 3:30 today for tomorrow just for kicks.....a high risk trade like that is best to take profit when u have it and people should read APK's very important comments at the end of YD thread

I will be travelling tomorrow to the Caribbean on a vacation so will not be online. I plan on working from there next though so hopefully I will see you all on Monday (provided the internet is fast enough).

Good luck and good weekend to all in advance.
enjoy and have fun
Has anyone studied the relationship between the cash S&P and the es? A few months ago the cash was running about 6 pts. higher than the es. It is now only about 2 ticks higher. Is this a bearish indication, or does it have no meaning?
the fake option trade that expires tomorrow
No video below? Try this link: option_trade.swf






es futures are just a derivative that has an expiration and at expiration it converges to the cash index price...that is why the spread usually starts at 6-8 pts and converges to zero over the next three months

Originally posted by ackwired

Has anyone studied the relationship between the cash S&P and the es? A few months ago the cash was running about 6 pts. higher than the es. It is now only about 2 ticks higher. Is this a bearish indication, or does it have no meaning?
to test the validity of say the 2std dev out of the money strikes we need the imp volaitlity at any point in time...so i was asking if that was available as a historical series...i guess if u pay, it probably is

Originally posted by BruceM

not sure if I understand your question...I don't subscribe so I am not sure if what you need is part of any of their data packages
Originally posted by apk781

yep, u can't be too cautious with those strategies imo...when the profit is there u have to take it...

also, is there a way to get that median imp volaitlity from that website Bruce? would like to see the performance of just naked strangles vs the spreads during various periods of time

Originally posted by BruceM

just a quick FYI.....options that we sold for 140 are only worth 85 so you would have been wise to either close this out or at least part of your position on the open today....I will set up another one near 3:30 today for tomorrow just for kicks.....a high risk trade like that is best to take profit when u have it and people should read APK's very important comments at the end of YD thread


i have the past few weeks' daily volatility values if it is helpful. i record them in my SD band spreasheet and i can get you the data that i have. i do not have the historical data that goes too back but a few days for sure. also i will have it from now on into the future too.
unfortunately i do not have data that goes back that much because i had not yet started collecting it.

i went through my set and it looks like i have only a month's worth. sorry