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ES Tuesday 5-24-16


Going to keep this brief today. Low range and an inside bar on daily yesterday. So we need to be mindful of possible trend day today or larger than expected move..two areas I will be taking shorts from are the 56- 58.50 ( last weeks VA high is up here too ) and the 61 - 62 area.....to see if I can get back to the 52..50 - 54 area...the high time from last week and Mondays highs !

I will edit this in a bit..2056 and 2038 are SITYS numbers today and yesterdays missed...

R2 is at 56 today

and last possible place for shorts will be up at 65 - 66....one SD band is up there and low time is up there from 5-16....otherwise the bulls will beat me up good today as I will not be on the longside at all this morning..if we do push out last weeks VA high then probabilities suggest multiple tpo's should print there especially if we leave single prints on that breakout
This might save you some time Bruce. No daily SITYS test YD, no ONH/ONL break or previous day's high/low break as well
Click image for original size
capture
our bands don't match and that is probably because i am now using 1/252 in the formula after exchanging some emails from Tom Preston at Tasty trade...but who is to say what is really right...one of the weekly SITYS numbers is up at 2068 so that is a concern of mine considering we will be opening ABOVE the high time of 52.50 from last week....so with out immediate rejection down we might be fighting against the tide again today
most of the overnight was spent above the settlement so I'm hoping they need to adjust that inventory a bit as per Daltons ideas
I have been meaning to ask you about the formula you are using. I too am using 1/252 but maybe there is something else that's missing. We can compare notes later.

Originally posted by BruceM

our bands don't match and that is probably because i am now using 1/252 in the formula after exchanging some emails from Tom Preston at Tasty trade...but who is to say what is really right...one of the weekly SITYS numbers is up at 2068 so that is a concern of mine considering we will be opening ABOVE the high time of 52.50 from last week....so with out immediate rejection down we might be fighting against the tide again today
now that they got the ONH, hopefully they are satisfied with the stat and can come down
Originally posted by NewKid

now that they got the ONH, hopefully they are satisfied with the stat and can come down. i too have been short this morning
starting sells small at 61.75....this is single print area too ...will try to see if I can get overnight high retest...keeping everything small for reasons already mentioned...not gonna let them beat me up too bad today
so all we know is that sometime this week we should see multiple tpo's at last weeks VA highs...doesn't mean it has to be today although that would be great...exception to this can sometimes be if we breakout high and close back inside on the same tpo print....so we get a quick breakout that fails and closes back inside all in the same 30 minute time frame
this is hard to see but it shows lines from last week against yesterday and todays trade...failure on this short may see them pushing towards the lines at 65 - 66...I can trade and do this because I am in small...otherwise my ramble would be kept to a minimum
Click image for original size
weekbar
took the loser on new highs.....only plan left is this for me.....sell 65 - 66 area or else I need to wait for price to get back under my 61 line to find a price action short
Originally posted by BruceM

I'm also buying put options as I have that probability of returning to 58 area before the week is out


What expiration do you buy Bruce and does the premium decay take a lot of profit out of the trade?