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ES Thursday 7-20-17


2474 - 2475 is first key number on upside to try and target back to yesterdays highs. Keep in mind we have an 8:30 report today if you play this early. Yesterdays profile is sloppy to me but I have a bearish mindset which can be trouble.....I will update before market opens and after that 8:30 report. No midpoint test yesterday. Very difficult to trade in low volatility where we don't see much two sided trade.

edit one: I sold 75 even on the way back down post report ...going for current midpoint of 72.75...R1 is 75 today and weekly R1 is 75 !

edit two: Biggest number to watch is 2469 today. I will explain on video

Edit three...the Video
No video below? Try this link: Thursday.swf






I think the 69 - 70.50 will still hold the key for anyone still actively trading today...as for me I'm just letting options decay and hope for further selling....now it's time to become Mr Pro car mechanic...hope all have a great day from here....that drop stopped exactly at the POC from yesterday......a bell curve center ..I think this buying tail has too many single prints in it and I would be expecting price to come back down into it after 11 :00 bracket begins....so if we are above 2470 after 11 a.m I would expect price to need to dip down below a bit...just not sure how far that dip will be
before I go..here is a picture of that ramble...."C" period has too many single prints as a buying tail inside a range...I think they will have to dip back under "B" period lows a bit........

Click image for original size
daysession

Originally posted by BruceM

I think the 69 - 70.50 will still hold the key for anyone still actively trading today...as for me I'm just letting options decay and hope for further selling....now it's time to become Mr Pro car mechanic...hope all have a great day from here....that drop stopped exactly at the POC from yesterday......a bell curve center ..I think this buying tail has too many single prints in it and I would be expecting price to come back down into it after 11 :00 bracket begins....so if we are above 2470 after 11 a.m I would expect price to need to dip down below a bit...just not sure how far that dip will be
Bruce, Good luck with the brakes, if you run into an issue holler. I have done quite a bit of my own work over the years and actually was poised to have a certified mechanic career-40 years ago. OUCH that hurt my ears.

Regarding the option decay, with volatlity so low the premiums just aren't there so I'm buying SPX calendar spreads. Sell 8 days out buy 22 days out every Wed/Thursday ATM. Ties up 6-700 per trade and today's trade is already of for .55 per contract profit. The nice part is if/when vol expands the trade will really zoom into profit quickly. Your naked calls might be tough to buy back of vol jumps while you're in.

I am just waiting for pop in vol >20 to put on a volatility structure trade my son and I have noodled out.

Thanks Big Mike....it may come down to that and I appreciate the help....I'll have to run some sim trades on your calendar spreads....I'm not a huge fan of debit spreads but in low volatility it would make sense
Originally posted by Big Mike

Bruce, Good luck with the brakes, if you run into an issue holler. I have done quite a bit of my own work over the years and actually was poised to have a certified mechanic career-40 years ago. OUCH that hurt my ears.

Regarding the option decay, with volatlity so low the premiums just aren't there so I'm buying SPX calendar spreads. Sell 8 days out buy 22 days out every Wed/Thursday ATM. Ties up 6-700 per trade and today's trade is already of for .55 per contract profit. The nice part is if/when vol expands the trade will really zoom into profit quickly. Your naked calls might be tough to buy back of vol jumps while you're in.

I am just waiting for pop in vol >20 to put on a volatility structure trade my son and I have noodled out.