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ESH and long term MP rotation

ESH: Since last Wednesday's failure to take out the 20 day VAH price as expected rotated down to test the 20 day VAL today. Since the initial low today price has rotated up to test Friday's VAL. The question is: will price now test today's low and possibly break down to test 1314.00, 1259.00 or even the January low or will price move up through Friday's VAL to give us a "80% rule" buying opportunity? Or put another way - In which direction will we see range extension today?
We had range extension in both directions on Monday. I'm curious as to how a longer term MP trader qualifies a "breakout" from the past 36 hours we have broken down through the 1323 number 4 thats 4 times the breakdown has failed....we are doing it again here in the overnight which gives us another gap is this the one that works? What is the risk point when the breakdowns fail ? Any ideas ?

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