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jimkane
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I was sure I posted the VIX ABCD, but I guess I requested someone do it, and if they did, I missed it. Anyway, I mentioned in my last commentary to do the work on this, and also in the 'Jim's Thoughts' section. This was a key reason I was ready for the selling to start.


Click image for original size
VIX 405-min 01/15/09



I chose the 405-min, which is one day's data per bar, because the daily chart had an unfiltered bad tick on it. The second horizontal red line is from the previous peak, but to show the peak I'd have to scrunch the chart up too much, so just look back at your data and you'll see it. So, there was a big ABCD coming together right on top of the previous range top, with a spike line in there, or if you don't think it is a spike line, it's a line of some sort. There is also a modified Schiff division line right in there, too (not shown). I just showed the basics here. I also tossed in that sweet 1.272 high that clued me in to the big market bounce, and that 1.128 that also showed the level of the second shoulder in the head and shoulders top.

So, the ABCD did give a reaction, the selling started, and now we are in the first area of interest here at a key .382, and it started to come in and the market started to rally, dead off obvious areas (see roofer's great chart on the SPX and that lower // as one example). I do the same work on the VIX as I do on anything else, and this one gave me clues way before the selling started. I hope everyone in here, and everyone that read my last commentary was as ready as I was for this to potentially play out, but probably only a few did the work...

This will be very interesting to watch, as sentiment shifts here once again. Will it last? We shall see.


Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.
JI
jimkane
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VIX is breaking down. Took out everything back to January. I knew something was up when it was down on a good-sized down day. Next stop, the entire big ledge. Not sure who is playing games with it, or why volatility sellers would be willing to take downside risk for less and less in here. Points to massive upside, or some kind of a trap which I can't quite figure out. They have no fear of downside right now at all, IMO.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
quote:
Originally posted by jimkane

...This says to me someone big knows an artificial ramp is already preset in the cards...

See? IMO, they knew.