It's all speculation, but I am looking at the prospect that we just completed a Wave 2. If it was a Wave 2 then a Wave 3 could bring new lows....but then again who knows what they have in mind.

M! I thought you were gone for awhile. Good to have you posting again.

As far as it being a speculation, I'd like to think of it more as 'an intelligent speculation' perhaps...

I just read this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8333577
I now really believe this to be true.
Makes no sense the greenback becomes a safe haven, but if you look at the alternatives where do you go?

Well, I'm not looking for a pat on the back or anything, but remember who was the first to say the Euro might not weather this storm. Just about everyone that I told that to said I was nuts. You can't tell anything about anything until you test it under some fairly severe stress and see how it handles it. My initial impression was they are not doing what they need to do, and it very well may not pass the test, partly as a result of this lack of action, and partly just the inherent nature of the system as it is set up. As they say, in a somewhat different 'context' usually, you can't tell who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. Just my two cents. Anyway, if M thinks there is any chance the Euro could possibly not survive this, that's big, in my opinion, given his background and familiarity with the currency.

Yes you are/were right and I am/was biased, and George Soros didn't enlighten me in this regard, but I still won't admit that it is a sure thing to happen, although having watched this and taking all facts into consideration this is a very real possibility. The very thing that has always failed to make the EU click like it is supposed to, namely decisive collaborative effort and actions (think Bosnia) is hurting them once again. There are just too many cooks in the kitchen.
Not that the dollar deserves any recognition, but look at the Euro. This thing is weak... Pound will be on par with the dollar this year I believe.

This is an interesting article on this topic:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/02/02/can-the-euro-survive.aspx

quote:

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Originally posted by mreiserer

It's all speculation, but I am looking at the prospect that we just completed a Wave 2. If it was a Wave 2 then a Wave 3 could bring new lows....but then again who knows what they have in mind.

Click image for original size

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M, Can you update this chart? Add on a sliding // off that 1/23 low, but otherwise try to show the chart as it is here, with nothing else added on. Look at that line use. What a framework for me to use.

Here is my un-edited version. Is this the SLP you were referring to?

Yep, down right off your 'speculation' area, right to the sliding // and division line (which I forgot to ask you to add, so good job saving me another step asking for that), and now here's something else to add and muse over. This is an 'unorthodox' technique, which is why I like it. Do a sliding // now for that smaller set you just added on, off that 1/21 low. What I had done was actually anchored my set on that date, but you can also anchor where you did and do that sliding //, too. Pretty cool, eh? I was about as sure as I could be that the odds favored a bounce in there, and lo and behold...

Oops, forgot to mention you should add the almost redundant trendline (which is also what other kind of line?) from the Nov low to the Jan low.

These are the spots to wait for.

Well, it's surely a major contributing factor, no doubt in my mind.