yesterday's last hour pop was not a legit pop, imo..just some late day covering I think...and im glad i closed on the high tick of the close.
Now, this could go to the DT areas next as suggested by Jim.
JI
jimkane
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quote:BBJ, here is my post from about the entry trigger time, 15:17:21 when it posted. My entry trigger was right in there, actually probably on the 15:16 bar. Here was my thinking, and you can see from the post I wasn't that confident this was going to play out, I really thought those rampers would win. Still, this was such a primo setup, and I'm still looking for the first time the creep doesn't play out, that it had a worthwhile reward/risk profile in my opinion.
Originally posted by jimkane
This is kind of cool in a way because TL creep is almost literally 99+% accurate in my experience. I'm not sure I've ever even seen it fail to play out. But this looks like a first case. Once it breaks away from the line, the whole setup is invalidated. The desire to run this pre-holiday is just too great. I don't think I've ever looked at a case right before a pre-holiday close, though. Interesting to study this one, but most likely an exceptional case. On the other hand, it isn't over until it's over...
This broke to the upside (went above the small TL over the higher highs on the way up), which may imply climax. It swept all the stops over the RTH HOD, and hit that 1.272 T mentioned. It also was a run almost to the GLOBEX high, and a 1.128 from the previous HOD. The GLOBEX 30-min upper //, as T showed, was the key factor, at that .382 area. 894 was also the IB 50% extension. There were some other things there, too, but the area was pretty clear now (1.902 price projection to the tick off the first push up, and on and on...).
Okay, I'm trying to answer the question. So, just like I to use POC, daily pivot, IB, and the like when they line up with my work, I don't like to take a creep play on the break because if it doesn't fully play out, it is a tough entry. I like to see it go to an area I would likely already want to play, then add that in as a big contributing factor. Point is, I was looking at that 95ish area as a PTA, with the creep as the lever to really get it moving.
The 3-min put in a nice doji bar with a low of 894.25. That's the first thing I noticed off the area. Next put TL's on 13 and 34-tick charts. Notice the small 'ledge' forming at 15:14-16, low of 894.25. That is also that 3-min doji bar low. That's my first trigger point if that breaks down. Shortly after that, if I wanted more confirmation, the TL break was just below. I prefer a more well-defined swing point, but if I wait on big break setups like this I may not get it. I don't like entering right above a TL, but I can't have it all. Also, once it starts to trade back into the previous high, that's a clue for me that I should be in, or near in, in most cases.
There was also a fantastic second shot on the rip there, and again with the sweet little ABCD W2 that I was sure wouldn't play out because it was just too perfect, but it did, at 15:43.
As far as stops, I am almost always going to be 2-3 ticks over the reversal point, so in this case 96 or 96.25. With the GLOBEX high at 96 even, 96.25 was a better choice, maybe even 96.50 if the R/R could justify it. This works out to about 4 to 1 R/R to the lower area I anticipated if it fully played out, and this one did. Also, I tend to see how things act once triggered, and many times I might look to bail well before a full stop if it doesn't act right. This is the 'art' part, because being too jumpy can take one out of many good trades that play out fine after some initial HC.
I hope this helps. I know all you wanted was a time and stop, one easy sentence, but I can only answer like this, it's my nature. Took me over a half hour, too, believe it or not, to write this up :-(