ES discussion, week of 8/31/09-9/4/09

Let me try the EXP:

There you go.

Hey Jarek, nice to see you posting here. Here are my results for the bigger ABCD and todays ABCD. Good to see our todays ABCD are the same, iam not sure about the bigger DT ABCD...

The usual range for a DT ABCD is 1.272 to 1.618 ext ret of the BC leg, but occasionally they can be to the 1.902 (I almost wrote up a special case using the 1.902 in the book, but didn't). So, it is past the 1.618 a little bit, but right at the key line confluence, and it is in the acceptable range. The 3-drives into the area is the key price action. Now we see what they do. My highest odds scenario is a bounce and roll, but we'll see, those MRRD's have been pretty tricky so far.

This came to a halt in a key area here. Globex already moved below.
We'll see. I am tourist just like Roofer these days...

M! I thought you were gone for good. Yes, that's three of five key lines I have in that same spot. Imagine if it can't even bounce here...

Jim - do you still consider this potential DT ABCD setup as valid?

Jarek,

The pattern is pretty stretched right now, and the 1.902 is a rare application of the DT parameters, so, combine that with the lack of a reaction off the 3-drives, and I am not expecting the pattern to be a driver here. That being said, I have about five lines all converging at this spot, and now it is essentially a bigger TD ABCD, and that adds another line in there. Given that, I will be surprised if this area doesn't produce a strong bounce. If it doesn't, that's a big clue. So far it looks amazingly weak. Keep an eye on GLOBEX for addition clues and manipulation.

I can't believe it, not a single comment today...

I am watching in here in this 97+ area, but I suspect they want to break it higher. If they really got it blasting into the close, I'm looking at the 1007-12 area next. I rather suspect they may want to run it up into the big jobs report tomorrow, which almost surely will be an upside blowout, and then they run it up on that, off this bigger pattern we have been discussing. Then we see what they can do with it after the holiday, and if they plan on new highs or a W2 'test' of the current top, and down it goes. Just thinking out loud here. If they roll it down from here, that sure implies some serious weakness. But, if the jobs report, which I think they will doctor, is a blowout, it should rocket up regardless.

Something different, but it's a pattern that forms a lot...the foldback pattern.

From MP I watch the POC, VAH, and VAL, and all previous virgin POC's, but only in the 'context' of them fitting in with the methodology.

Did you see that ABCD at a .300/.382 overlap and key set line that this started up off of just now? I have to wonder if it's done all it can today, though. We'll see. My plan is to stay long side bias until it clearly says otherwise. That may be in here, or it may not be.