perhaps the most powerful and enduring concept that my mentor showed me and that i have expressed here many times is''as price approaches an important turn, the tools workk better and better on shorter and shorter time frames.. traders become mesmerized by their success and miss the big turn... though jim has expressed concern recently about the lack of participation.... if you look at it another way, at least for me, that is a good thing... it means i need to only be looking at the market for short periods of time and then be gone...under all the noise, just as at the july low, my way of looking at the market says the possibility of an important turn is at hand... thus i am back in the market... those who understood my charts in july will understand these...

Nice charts, roofer. Good comments, too. All I can say is when this thing goes, I think it is really going to go. When I read about how taxes are going up everywhere, and heavily on the middle class and small businesses (look at some of the state issues, too, as well as federal, for example here: http://www.greencompany.com/blog/index.php), and how much trouble the banks are truly in, and the absolute mess they have made of all this kicking the can down the road, I can't see how we aren't headed for the mother of all depressions. There is a lot that says the bear market rally is ending somewhere right in here, or has already ended, but, you know, every time it looks ready to roll over it seems like they have a way of pumping a few more trillion into the primary dealers with instructions to buy index futures, and inducing yet another desired drop in the USD, that I wonder if this will ever stop going up. Like I keep saying, the Dow may be at 30,000 soon, and a wheelbarrow full of dollars will buy you a loaf of bread. So, what good is Dow 30,000?

please note that my willingness to defend this trade is based in part on the VERY FREQUENCY that gave me the all in trade in early july....

please note, my work at this time is not pointing to resumption of bear market... it just suggests largest and sharpest selloff since july low.

this is not bullish....

Great charts!

m- we shall see... i am just doing what i always do...looking at the parts as well as the whole... as i said at the july low, i will laugh the hardest if this blows up in my face...a note on the july low. of all the stocks that i found that completed kane abcd's at .382,only BBY refuses to take out swing, having bumped against it 3 times...thus even in this case, the 87% rule has worked..another note....it is a tribute to jim's work that i do not have to sit in front of screens all day and can spend my time doing what i want... i.e my lack of day to day participation validates the value of jim's work...and i believe no one can say that i did not spend endless hours putting together presentations here...

quote:

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Originally posted by roofer

please note, my work at this time is not pointing to resumption of bear market... it just suggests largest and sharpest selloff since july low.

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like I've always said if things aren't getting worse and the 'good' news on steroids keep coming in only a shock event has the potential to resume a bear market...

Yep, but the odds of a shock event are growing daily, and at some point not too long from now will reach 99.99% chance in my opinion. Kind of like playing Russion roulette over and over and over. The odds of a shock event approach 100%, and so it is now, I believe. We may not know when, perhaps Israel stiking Iran soon, who knows, most likely a collapse in the USD, but it will come, mark my words. The low is not in, in my opinion, not even close. We are in the third inning.

yes maybe, but the odds for a shock event have always been there in history and eventually it will occur, but when nobody knows. Maybe tomorrow, maybe in ten years. I know I am not waiting for one.Suffering usually creates more suffering.

Well, just keep in mind that the odds of a shock event are not a constant throughout history, just as the odds of a shock event aren't the same if one does or doesn't play Russian roulette. The games being played now are no different than Russian roulette, and the end game can only have one outcome over time. There is no way out of this, in my opinion. If one reads the posts on Zero Hedge, and sees what is actually going on, the end game is clear. When, and what trigger, who knows. But to ignore outrageous levels of implosion risk now is just as crazy as it was in Oct 2007 when everyone laughed at risk then.

As a 'professional risk taker' I am just saying ignore what is on Zero Hedge at one's own peril, the outcome is essentially predetermined at this point, in my opinion. I'm not the only one saying this, Faber, Soros, Saluzzi, Pento, and an endless slew of others can see it coming. This is a secular bear, the damages done are extensive, and we are in that phase they all have where they get deluded and think everything is back to normal. The truth then comes out, and the demoralization is crushing. I'm just saying that if this is my business, I am preparing to go with that flow. It's up now, but it will be down harder than ever, and it will be swift, so I'm getting ready.