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JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Christmas is a good time for sharing memories and here is my story.

I come from a country which was a part of the former Soviet bloc where socialism and central planning were the name of the game. It was meant to be a system with happy people across the board as opposed to capitalism with its exploitation, unemployment and constant boom and bust cycles. Central planners needed to take care of it and they did. Certainly they had to make sure that things are affordable for everybody. It was not an easy task at times when my father who was a finance director in a factory with 5000 employees was making an equivalent to $10 a month (this is not a mistake: one hundred and twenty US dollars per year). You can only imagine how cheap things needed to be in order to make everybody happy. And they were cheap but naturally very difficult to get. I recall times when every day after school I was spending an hour in a line for food, then my mother was taking over from me and after another hour spent in a line she was able to buy food for that day. But it was affordable so we ought not to complain…

For big ticket items they wanted to avoid lines lasting months so they came up with an idea of issuing coupons giving right to purchase certain item at certain time. Underground market immediately developed where for example a new car bought with the coupon could be sold for 4 times as much to somebody who didn’t have a coupon. It was funny to watch 5 years old used cars being sold for more than the new one in the dealership (if you had a coupon…)

When a really big economic crisis hit shortly before the martial law was introduced we had nothing in shops but vinegar. Can you imagine a supermarket with all shelves empty but a few with hundreds of bottles of vinegar? If not here is the picture of the result of central planning:

Click image for original size


Many were wondering why everything was sold out but vinegar. In my opinion it was simply a mistake in planning – somebody took thousands for millions and there were 1000 times more bottles produced than needed…

Central planners of course didn’t give up and after announcing that the shortages were the result of excessive speculation they introduced ration stamps for almost everything. First meat, then sugar, butter, rice, soap, alcohol, cigarettes – you name it. The shops were again full of products at affordable prices but nobody could buy as much as they were willing to. So another underground market developed – this time a market for ration stamps. I don’t need so much alcohol but would like to have more chocolate for my kids than one bar a month so why not find somebody with exactly opposite needs? And so on and so on …

All this stupidity ended only after introducing the free market by first non-communist government in early 90s. It took a lot of sacrifices and hard work along the way but 20 years later our economy is the only one in EU zone that is not contracting this year and we are considered to be the new European tiger...

What are the morals of this story?

Lesson 1

Regardless of how clever and how smart those in power are, central planning always creates imbalances which later need to be corrected by free market.

Lesson 2

Regardless of how incompetent those in power are if People are willing to sacrifice and work hard they can find the way out from no matter how big hole.
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
I'm watching this potential count:

Click image for original size


I know I've been overly bearish recently. I'll try to improve next year :-)
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
That's surely something to watch, jarek. The most important thing for me was spotting the small ABCD off the last key area, and then that 4PT, which more than played out for its size. And then this area you have, and the resultant sharp drop. It's all about seeing the potential setups.

Well, my 'guess' for this week was way off. Two of the four days they gunned the stops in GLOBEX, but after that they faded right out. They tried last night, but jarek's area was too much for them today. That's why I stay away from predicting, and even 'guessing' more than one day out. I still think there is some significance to them not gunning this up when they had the chance. Only in hindsight may we see what that may be.

So, on top of it, I thought today was a half day, too. I went back to the NYSE website to figure out why I thought that. Like that copper chart that keeps changing the scale on an almost daily basis, I'm starting to think I am losing it. I had looked below the main table to the European table on my second glance, something they never had before they merged with Euronext. So, without looking closely I assumed all tables were for the NYSE. Europe closed with a half day, but not us. Geez, I need a vacation...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Swooooooooosh! Nice drop off that small, long, drawn out flat ABCD. Looks like they are gunning for that recent low there now. Nice setup there, jarek, you found the spot just right.

And there goes that low, before I could even post this. Is this an ABCD down lower shaping up, or a B=D ABCD here after a quicky stop run?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
1.000 ABCD hit! Amazing. I have to admit, this selling here doesn't bother me one bit. Not ooooooonnnnnnneeeeee bit. But, alas, it may just be a last minute position squaring right to that ABCD, and then up like a rocket from there. Only time will tell. As roofer would likely say, playin' one setup to the next, where it goes, who cares, just lookin' for the next setup.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Hey, jarek, I bet you didn't think this would get to the bottom of your chart today, huh? Incredible.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
3.75 points just about straight up off that 1.000 ABCD to the tick. Unreal.
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
from first to last...its all just geometry... the geometry of this forum....
Click image for original size

Click image for original size
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Originally posted by roofer

from first to last...its all just geometry... the geometry of this forum....
Ex-aaacccctttt-ly.