The first week of 2010 brougth the breakouts to the upside in many important indexes and commodities. From what we follow here copper extended its previous break:



... and crude oil finally broke through the line it unsuccessfully approached so many times in the past:



These are clear breakouts that need to be respected. Barring a fake breakout which on such scale is hardly conceivable, they most probably show the direction of the markets for the coming months irrespective of the fact what majority of us think about the origin of the current rise.

Yeah, just like that...

Now, this W3-4-5 ending look here is important to watch. If it wanted to be done, this is how it might end. So, in case, I'm very cautious in here. They must pick it right back up with no messing around here if upside has a chance. Otherwise, this might be acting like a DB ABCD in here instead of a zigzag. Just a thought.

My next really key area is around 44, plus or minus a few ticks.

And there's 44. Still in 'management mode'. Now we see. Four more points and it's back at a new high for the entire 'bull'. Rock me, Jimadamus.

'Management mode', which should be clear, means if say one is long, they would be trailing some kind of stop as it hits a key area, seeing how it acts. If it blows the area out, the trailing stop is not activated. If there is a sufficient reaction off the area, depending on how the trailing stop has been set up, it will start the scaling out process as the trade moves against the trader. So, although key areas are hit, what happens at those areas decides the fate of the trade, not the mere presence of the areas, i.e. the KT slogan: 'No profit targets, ever.'

45.25. Deep into the area. Last chance for a turnaround. Very happy with the long side so far. 2.75 points from a new 'bull market' high (well, plus another tick to set the high).

just trading .....today was a day that we should all be glad for what has been shown at this forum....it absolutely hammered the market.

I agree totally.

Al Kamego

Yes, roofer, it was just textbook. I just finished doing a remote session with a student right now, and I showed him the setups and such for the last few days, and even I'm amazed at how this thing followed the script. The market is just a neverending fascination to me. Like you say, it's all just geometry.

you have to give the computers credit... they are actually getting even better at the game.... you just have to love the hook they threw in the dia as a distraction..!!!!and that is a classic example of why i watch indexes as group.....

The last post by jarek is especially useful for us here. It is a great 'context' example. That's a primo choice, great looking setup, with many of the factors I look for. But, this is coming off a large flat ABCD which is not only a much bigger pattern, but is also in line with the main trend, which is up. So, would I play a small short setup in here, set up to fade the bigger pattern? Only if I thought the larger setup was likely to fail. I don't feel that here. It may fail, but I surely don't want to fade it. In fact, the long side has been triggered already.

So, how do I read this, what's my play, so to speak? As I mentioned, this triggered beautifully with multiple setups on the way down, as already discussed. It went right to the key area I was watching, and started up. The short side is closed, and the long side triggered. May this roll down to a DT ABCD area, or even be a major top? Sure. But the last eighteen or whatever times it did something like this, and the top callers said the top was in, it went right back to another new high. I want to play that until it breaks.

This means I want to be proven wrong. That means I am playing with the trend until it breaks. There will be plenty of time to play the short side once a top is in. As I discussed and explained several times, this does not mean I never trade the short side, as I felt the last two drops were get setups and plays. It just means when it goes to a likely support area and reacts I'm done with the short side, and back to the long side. I will repeat this until I miss the top. When I close my long side out and it drops down further and all the top callers are laughing at me I'll be smiling. I stayed with my 'Trading Plan'. Then I can start looking on the short side at resistance, and countertrend only back to resistance.

You see, at some point a top will form, and I'll 'miss it'. That's by design. That's what I am trying to do. To look at the one time when a top caller catches the top, and then say the plan should be changed based on that success makes no sense to me. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. One must account for all the failed attempts and missed trades on the way to catching that turn right at it's inception. It may be a nice trade there, but overall I find it a lot less procuctive than the approach I have been describing.

I say all this not because I am upset with anyone, or anything like that. My 'job' in here is to help people understand the KT methodology. That's all I'm trying to do, explain the philosophy. Make it clear what my approach is. Everyone can trade however they want, but if someone is in here, I assume it is to try to understand more about this methodology. If I see some key concepts aren't being grasped, I will try over and over to make those concepts more clear. That's all I am pointing out here.

The bottom line is, I am not going to trade this little bearish ABCD, I'm already triggered on the long side. If it rolls down on Sunday night, that's fine. At some point this will correct further. If I'm long, I'll be stopped out. The top callers will win this battle, but I think the war will be lost with that approach. I hope this one rolls down. I hope they crush this market, unmercifully. But until they do, I'm going to stay with the trend until proven otherwise, or until I get a big bearish ABCD setup. Along the way there will be areas worth taking shots at, followed down until a reaction happens at support, then it's back to the trend.

And after the fact, if this bearish ABCD here plays out fantastically, would my opinion change? Not at all. One case doesn't matter, only the aggregate. One of these bearish patterns will follow through, but the point is follow the odds, not the one case. And that all depends on the 'context'. If I thought an intermediate top was in, I'd already be short and holding here. If I thought the 'context' favored the resumption of the uptrend off this big pattern, I'd be long. But to start a new short this far down on that small of a bounce, right on support, that doesn't make sense for me, 'context'-wise. Make sense, I hope?