So there is another chance to extend the recent string of Monday up sessions, which Jim is stressing so much lately. Based on the fact that Kane ABCD completed exactly at .382 of the previous swing we know that there is exactly 87% chance of taking out February highs. And looking at counts posted on various sites by prominent elliotticians pointing to imminent start of wave 3 of 3 down, we may expect that there should be enough fuel to propel such a rise.

Nothing decisive happened to the long term picture of the issues posted here last weekend. One interesting development though is 10Y yield. While many (including myself) were expecting a break and acceleration to the upside, we had a strong move down right off Kane ABCD:



Hard to imagine that this was a Wave 2 ABCD, but we can't rule it out...

Thanks for starting the topic, again, jarek. Without you, I think the forum would just grind to a complete halt.

I wanted to discuss those rates. They are likely going to be the topic of my commentary for next weekend. They jumped right up off the area I posted in the last commentary (making me look pretty good to the followers who don't have the books), but they did it in an ABCD right to an area of concern. The market then started to weaken, which would cause a 'flight to quality' and the associated drop in rates. Look at how clean this looks in the ZN. So, what it does from here, well, it's a big deal for the market. I'll leave it to everyone to work on this and post if they want, as jarek has. I want to save some of my thoughts for next weekend.

I can't wait for the futures to open. The quake in Chile may not only greatly affect our fruit prices here in the U.S. (almost all fruit for us in the winter comes from Chile, as well as fish), but their number one export is copper, and we are the number one importer of that copper. Copper may 'skyrocket' on this. We'll know soon. And that may actually increase the 'risk trade'. If so, gold, silver, crude, the Euro, the Loonie, the Aussie, and our futures would all go up. And rates? Heading back up as money leaves safety into 'risk'. Remember, the new world is just 'Risk on, risk off'. I can't wait to see how the market takes this.

Lastly, let me mention how Greece may play into this. It is looking like the IMF is the only one who will touch them. The EU looks like it is going to leave them to twist in the wind. All this will play into the 'risk trade' quite a bit, but in what way, well, that will depend on how this unfolds, blow by blow. So, keep an eye on that situation, and how the market reacts to it.

Okay, there's the new high on the ES for the move off the recent ABCD. It's only a few points away from a new high for the move off the Feb 5th low. After that it can start its march to a new high for the entire 'bull' market. Maybe it makes it, maybe it gets crushed to dust starting five minutes from now. I don't know, and I don't care. I just watch the areas, make my choices, and see what fate/nature/the market has in store for us.

And copper opens up about 20 cents. 20 cents! Just a little bit from an 18-month high!

Going to be another great night in GLOBEX, it seems. There will be plenty of time to sleep after I'm dead. After setting that new high for the move it pulls back. To where? .382/.447 overlap at a key set line and a trendline. Wow, what a surprise. And then what? Another new high for the move. Two points to a new high for the move from the Feb 5th low. I expect that shortly. Oh, those W3(3) Elliott-ers are suffering... But hey, if they can stand the heat maybe they'll have the last laugh, who knows. We'll know when we know. In the meantime, I'll just keep looking for trade setups.

As expected the 87% rule was satisfied and 3 of 3 down count denied. But the market does not behave like it was in 3rd wave up either - it didn't accelerate after taking out last high. So last week's big ABCD was either Wave 4 of the move up from Feb 5th or an AB leg of even bigger ABCD.

There may be a third possibility, jarek, and that is that it won't follow any Elliott count or rules at all.

S&P Midcaps are five points and change from a new high for the entire 'bull' market. The Russell 2000, which has 2000 stocks in it, is just over seven points away. Just remember that the S&P 500 isn't the entire universe.

Originally posted by jimkane

There may be a third possibility, jarek, and that is that it won't follow any Elliott count or rules at all.

This one can never, ever be ruled out :-)

Did all you currency traders (Duane, M, etc.) see that cable plunge just after 4 AM Eastern? Wow.

There's another new HOD on the ES.

Okay, folks, the one man show is over for the week. We got a high close for the week, we got the big up day I expected today right off that ABCD I mentioned, we got the jobs report beat I expected, it's all following the manipulation script as expected. I see some exciting times ahead. I think the only thing that can stop this runaway 'bull' market is a crisis. Not the threat of a crisis, but the actual crisis grinding manipulation to a halt. Since the expected reaction to a crisis is to manipulate the market up even further, the only thing that will likely stop this, in my opinion, is a crisis such that they simply aren't able to run money into it at that point.

Keep an eye out for my monthly commentary, which I hope to have posted tonight, but if not then, by this weekend. See everyone Monday. All two or three of you...