Last week's decline looks like the first leg down of the move off the big bearish ABCD. And this first leg down isn't necessarily over yet...

Now, will that snap it up? No follow through should cause a snap back in my experience. But I rather suspect this day may not bring any short-covering. The weakness is all-pervasive. Now, just as I say that, will it explode up? I would think the sensible thing now would be a climax sell and then a huge snap back. I mean, it couldn't rise at all from this area, will a little stop run that didn't seem to really catch any stops here now cause a wild reaction up??? But, common sense doesn't seem to prevail in this market. I wish they'd really sell this thing, but with such a big drop so far, any hard selling would likely climax it, and I want to see 900 area next, so I prefer slow and steady. Just some ramblings.

Notice crude really starting to sell.

1.128 stop run was to the tick. I'm back to intraday upside bias, but ready to change in half a heartbeat if this weakens again.

I just don't see upside today...

It also seems that a roll to form one more small 'leg' here makes more sense, to maybe hit the bigger 1.272, with something in the 1.272-1.618 ext ret for this little last leg, would be nice. But if they send it down more, I'm not sure it could be contained. I'm thinking 'old skool' here in that it is due for a snap back, and in the new world of high volume and no market participation depth, when they sell, they sell. Then the PPT shows up and it goes ballistic. But if the PPT doesn't show, it really sells hard. Still, to have no fight over an area that is all they talk about on TV and on blogs and forums, wow, that would be something. And now maybe this is forming a 3-4-5 look to it. I'm staying with the upside bias, for now...

Got some play, right to the first key area, but now the real test.

It 'sees' the area, but the reaction is muted so far. I'm ready for up and over. Let's see.

Up and over. Upside bias working well now. We could possibly rise until close if the PPT is here. It just makes no sense for this not to rise strongly off this area everyone sees, to get the suckers in the trap.

Next area I'm watching is 44.75-46.

Anyone notice that Euro ABCD??? Look on say a 120-min all-sessions.

Originally posted by jimkane

Next area I'm watching is 44.75-46.

Fits well to a possible TD ABCD assumption:

That's the one.