So Friday's action didn't give us the answer to the question which of Kane ABCDs pointing in different directions will prevail and both are still in play. Here are the 2 sets I'm watching for earlier clues than taking out respective ABCD's highs:





Both were very well respected so far and should be watched carefully. The fact that the downsloping ML of the smaller set contained the bounce 3 times in the last 2 days might suggest that its lower ML could be the next target. At the same time the last action might be considered as coiling around the ML of the bigger set and once the drop starts it might not stop before reaching the downsloping ML of the bigger set around 1030.
On the opposite side if we get the usual Sunday night - Monday push to the upside, then upper ML should be the target and last high would be in danger.

Roofer mentioned here on Friday that a lot of forecasters are calling for another top later in August. On the other hand a lot of Elliotticians including R.Prechter are giving no chances that last top could be taken out, because they see clear evidence that Wave 3 of 3 of ... to the downside has already started.
In my opinion due to the reasons mentioned on this forum many times in the past, there is no way that a drop of apocaliptic proportions has just started. Therefore those betting on it should be fooled painfully. It can happen in 2 ways:
- either the top will be taken out now and the real drop of some magnitude will start only after those betting on the start of a big W3 will buy back what they already sold
- or the drop will now accelerate to the downside luring more and more bears, who later on will provide the necessary fuel for the rise to new highs.

Just some thoughts.

jarek... my 2 cents...i would remain silent if you had metioned any other analyst... but the one you metioned has no credence in my book.. i was a subscriber in the 80's. he would say one thing, when the market did another thing, he would say he had said another thing...it reached its absurd level around the crash of '87.. the whole investment community called him on it when he claimed to have said one thing when he had said another.many, including me, thought he would be so embarrassed he would slink away and be gone.....but memories are short in this business.... and he is an industry, not a trader....//////my theoretical frame work suggests a much longer drawn out top... but i do not trade theory, i trade the tools... and that last .886 on gap on tuesday was a classic entry.....////fyi, my framework calls for selling into october, then a basing period,then a steady rally for months before a top is reached where the real selling begins...

Thanks for sharing Geo. I can say that not much has changed regarding EWI services in the last 20 years. And yet they still have new subscribers. This just shows how powerfull a good marketing can be...

on a personal level, i have a neighbor and friend who is a private money manager and an ardent almost to the point religious fervor follower of prechter....he got so tired of me telling him when the geometry disagreed with prechter ( and the geometry was always correct)that i only talk the market with him now when it agrees.....

I'm back to the usual on the computer now. Incredible work in here, crew. Very impressive.

In my opinion today's price action alone should be sufficient proof against any W3 down concept. Twice after setting a marginal new low there was an immediate bounce of more than 10 points within couple of hours. One should expect acceleration to the downside after setting a new low during a real W3 down...

Now we have attempt no 6 at the downsloping ML:





I wonder if Jim would allow to call today's drop a small 3D to finish off a bigger 3D?

jarek, technically it fits the scenario you are saying, but pictorially I just don't like it too much. It did give the initial reaction, and may indeed play out, but I was struggling to give it much credence as far as adding weight to the odds. Just my take.

'They' need to pick this up here or it could sell hard.

I'm not sure whether this could be treated as bullish ABCD due to a shallow BC leg:

I'm watching the area of 1072.50-1074.50 next, if it gets there. This 71.50 here is a minor area, and may be close enough to the above to finish it. Let's see.