We have a nice potential double bottom that could play very well into the usual Sunday night - Monday strength. This 100% retracement of Wave 1 of the move off our bullish ABCD doesn't fit well to the scenario of a really strong trend up starting here, but the move to the usual area off this ABCD should be good enough to deny all the Wave 3 callers right away:
JA
jarek
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Actually this is the first time I see your green set based on 3 higher lows. I wonder if it has the same success rate as the original one...
ER
EricD
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Posts: 692
nice read Jarek on how it developed. Watching 82-84 and then 87-90.
Sweet Abcd at 1057.50 at 8:15 time...
Sweet Abcd at 1057.50 at 8:15 time...
JA
jarek
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In my opinion today's rise alone is sufficient proof that we are not in any meaningfull W3 down. Rises like this simply do not happen in W3 down of any large degree. But the W3 callers will hang around until proven wrong with 100% certainty, providing the necessary fuel for the next move up.
JI
jimkane
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Great work, guys. One thing I am wondering about, though, is the old maxim 'there is no such thing as a triple top or triple bottom'. In other words, they rarely hold. Could the latter two hits be the start of a bigger DB ABCD, with the range for that being 82.25-94.50? That would have the previous swing low as part of the finishing action of the downward move into the area. I have lines coming in right here (but see nothing in the price action that would even start to make me think this thing could be done here), and above, in the 89-94.50 area, where another push might exhaust this.
Here's my sentiment thinking. Bullish sentiment reached a low equal to Mar '09. It's gotten widely publicized on TV and in blogs and forums. The story went around (likely true, in my opinion) that Berquacke's next move is buying stocks and real estate outright and openly, not disguised via the primary dealers. Throw in a not too bad economic report, and I'm surprised the ES isn't up 50. Probably the only reason it isn't is because it was just up so much with little rest leading into this.
The moral of the story is this. Everyone is now saying this has legs, this move has barely started. Risk on is the trade now, for some time to come. That has me thinking this may be a really nice trap for the bulls. It would surely take a shock event item to turn it around, but such an event would not be too hard to come by, with all that is out there. I'm not saying I'm 'bearish', only that I'm not going to get sucked in to the hype, either, and will stay technical all the way. Just some thoughts.
Here's my sentiment thinking. Bullish sentiment reached a low equal to Mar '09. It's gotten widely publicized on TV and in blogs and forums. The story went around (likely true, in my opinion) that Berquacke's next move is buying stocks and real estate outright and openly, not disguised via the primary dealers. Throw in a not too bad economic report, and I'm surprised the ES isn't up 50. Probably the only reason it isn't is because it was just up so much with little rest leading into this.
The moral of the story is this. Everyone is now saying this has legs, this move has barely started. Risk on is the trade now, for some time to come. That has me thinking this may be a really nice trap for the bulls. It would surely take a shock event item to turn it around, but such an event would not be too hard to come by, with all that is out there. I'm not saying I'm 'bearish', only that I'm not going to get sucked in to the hype, either, and will stay technical all the way. Just some thoughts.
ER
EricD
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Posts: 692
JIm that is grat insight. I am with you....major bottoms are never on a triple bottom. I look backed 10 years and never seen anything relating to this pattern other than your premise of what you said. A much larger ABCD can form into the 60-80 range but that is getting way ahead and not trading in the now.



