Looks like we may now safely concentrate on the upsloping sets instead of the downsloping ones:




The history likes to repeat itself and similarly to last year the July low at 38.2% was likely it. We still can't exclude a possible big flat that would retest that low, but Jim's scenario of "up, up, up and away" is in my opinion much more likely. In such case after a clear acceleration through the rising ML, the upper ML at 1340 should be the next target.

Jarek just laying out possibilities to build a premise. I hate to think counter after following Jim's views, but sometimes it is worth a shot.

Originally posted by albert

Jarek,

You really nailed that last ABCD.

Al Kamego

It wasn't that difficult at this line confluence ...

Originally posted by EricD

... I hate to think counter after following Jim's views, but sometimes it is worth a shot.

I have nothing against a well deserved correction in the current uptrend. I commented just on seeing such a date on a chart probably for the first time ever.

I'm suspecting it may be the start of a much bigger upmove, so what looks like a climax here may be the first step in a much, much bigger, insane cataclysmic blowoff, with crude ending well north of $200, and the other comms way, way up. It's just a thought, but I suspect a lot of this funny munny is going to end up in the hard assets, and comms are it, since real estate isn't.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jimkane

...Something very big is starting to unfold, in my opinion.

Are you thinking about this climax as something finishing the move or rather starting a new, even bigger one?

The bulls are finally taking over short term control. Let's check whether the 'Kane Zone' will hold this time around:

Never be afraid to think counter to me. I'm just a person, I throw out most of my thoughts just for food for thought, grist for the mill. Many don't come to pass. Always go with your work, and trust it, and learn from the outcomes. Just my two cents.

Originally posted by EricD

Jarek just laying out possibilities to build a premise. I hate to think counter after following Jim's views, but sometimes it is worth a shot.

Jim ... it is the methodology that has kept me still in the game and doing the work with the "Contex".

Besides, eric, I mentioned before that I have two major areas, at 1250 and 1330. If a bigger correction starts here at around 1225, that would not be a shocker.

I want to see the roofer green line set for that SL on that chart.

And given the dollar seems to not be collapsing right now, the ES may weaken. The Euro and DX ABCD's may still play out. The DX hasn't even hit the 1.000 level with that low, and the Euro barely ticked above the 1.128. You never know. The market may sell off, the dollar strengthen, and the comms still go up as money flows into them beyond the flight to the dollar. It can happen, despite the 1.00000000 correlation we've had lately. That can break. I'm very adaptable. I go with the actual flow, not what I think may happen.

Lately we've gotten into a lot of prediction in here, and it just doesn't matter to me which direction any of this goes, I just see which way it is going at the moment, and look for setups. I try to discuss where things may go in a management context, but I'm afraid it is drifting from that to just outright prediction, and that can be very dangerous for practitioners of the KT methodology. Just something to be aware of.

Some short term areas to watch:

This potential turn at the very first area would only confirm the weakness:

Thanks - it seemed to me, that they were somewhat closer. Must have been too tired yesterday...