We have the biggest drop in 2 months right after the breakout to the new highs for the year:




(in fact only after preparing this chart I noticed that all the corrections on the way up were so similar in size...)

In my opinion the odds are high that this was a fake breakout and at least the recent leg up should now be corrected. I'll stick to my bearish stance until the bearish ABCDs in the Kane Zone stop to be respected (and that might happen as soon as Monday night ):

Major commodities are following the short term geometry pretty well (an important turn nearby?) and all respected bearish ABCDs in KZ:

across the board, as was shown in the GG example,my stack of gold stock charts suggests caution here on the long side....monthly down to hourly.....

Well, I for one hope the geometry plays out. I'm seriously hoping gold can get under $1,000, and the ideal to me would be well under that. Paying over $1,400 for gold doesn't sound great to me. I'm hoping Europe really tanks and that shoots the dollar way up, which will perhaps delay the monster 'speculative' run they plan, in my opinion, in all the comms. This would allow purchases of gold at a much better price. But, unless Europe really gets hit with uncontrolled debt issues, which look imminent right now, I don't see anything else (except some other market shock event) that can bring them down and the hated dollar up, especially with the Fed's goal solely to destroy the dollar.

The downside, if one doesn't take this into account, is that if the dollar rises and comms fall substantially, the talk will again be deflation. This will lead to a lot more Bern-Quacke actions, and that will be the final nail in the coffin for the ultimate dollar collapse and hyperinflation. The problem is, once comms come off, the dollar rises strongly, and prices 'drop', fear of a potential hyperinflation will fade, even amongst informed people like in here. And what might be the last chance to get gold and get various protections laid down will pass by, unutilized.

Keep in mind, this is all just my opinion.

P.S. Just fantastic chartwork, jarek.

we are traders...often the geometry is most compelling when what we think is at odds with the geometry....i was laughed off another forum when i suggested that NEM would sell off to the X MARKS THE SPOT from the first arrow....i was the village idiot for suggesting long term rally from tweezers at 2nd arrow... geez was it only a few months ago everyone was calling for the demise of the euro and parity?....right at the bottom?now the geometry gives a 3rd arrow.... what i am looking for is a sell in gld and gold stocks coming together....i do not have that yet.....

with all the banter about commodities going thru the roof and large front page article on wall street journal saying same.... i chuckled and said some things never change. tout and dump..tout and dump..... and trusted the geometry to tell me when to dump my position into strength....

if nothing else,caution advised.... the notation on the ibm chart is two years old.... i had been saying all along that ibm had to go to 69.50

Great charts, roofer. I'd vote you up, but you said not to.

Kane Zone didn't hold but the short term downsloping set is still working exceptionally well:

Short term sets in Crude are also doing their job extremaly well:

Lightning trade this morning.

Al Kamego