ES Thursday 3-22-12

I have the weekly pivot at 1386.75 and they just stole that from us in the Overnight..so I am using that down to 1384.50 as first support ( that begins low volume area again)...above there I have 1393 - 1394 as first upside low volume key..then 97.50 - 98 as that was yesterdays challenge area and lots of time there..prefer to use that as more of a magnet then a trade initiation point.

Further below will be the critical 1379 - 80 as the breakout point from the fed day.

damn this trading game is hard...if I want an ultimate 5 - 6 point target then I need to POSSIBLY be willing to wait all day in this limited range and volatility....requires to wade through a lot of noise and a big change in thinking..

Bruce,is that 92.50 target based on a +5.5 or the higher vol area from last week?

Bruce, if we were to take out the current low at 86, would you try longs again down to 84.5 or use your next area of 79-80 for longs only ? Thanks in advance, AYN

This is nothing I invented, believe me.
GapGuy mentioned it years ago, the 600xma of the 5min bars

I have the 600 exponential moving average (of RTH prices only 5min bars) alarmed.

Marc Chaikin made this observation.

if price closed RTH yesterday above the 600xma but gapped below it today, odds are low for a gap fill.
600xma at open was 1391.25
open was BELOW that at 1387.00 (I have noticed that when this fails, (meaning when the gap below the 600xam fails to hold prices lower)
when it fails, it happens in the first 30-45 minutes (by a failure here I mean price is able to get back above the 600xma).

i was only trying to get out ahead of the low volume area but the 5.5 is a bonus...

Originally posted by bkay59

Bruce,is that 92.50 target based on a +5.5 or the higher vol area from last week?

yes I would take longs at both areas because we start getting into a low volume area and the minus 2.5 and munus 4 numbers...these would be more agressive as we are finding resistance at the 1390 so that implies selling but it doesn't mean we can't try the fades as long as our key areas are there...just go lighter .

Originally posted by ayn

Bruce, if we were to take out the current low at 86, would you try longs again down to 84.5 or use your next area of 79-80 for longs only ? Thanks in advance, AYN

NQ did not go to a new intraday Low.

RE NQ comment, can mean that downside now is limited, a possible intraday floor is in place.

on 83.50 after runners stopped at 86.25 which was a big error..should have moved up stop on that higher

this could get tricky..one tick of air at 85.50..will get agressive only if I see 1380 print...expect air to fill off new lows

thanks for posting the chart Jedi