Just over three hours until the futures open. Although there will be a break for part of tomorrow's RTH time, otherwise it's still 'game on'. I'm bored and ready for action. I'm not sure what my life would be like without the market, I guess I'd find something else that I find exciting...

Hmmm, they decided not to run it, and not to break it down. They close cash right at the LOD level. I wonder what they will do in after-cash? Sunday night GLOBEX? Very interesting.

And they set a new low right upon cash close!

Time to buy AAPL. I know I'm loading up. I bought a crapload and put it in the same account as all that JPM stock I mentioned buying in that previous post. From Carl Futia today:

"So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously."


BTW, if anyone has to ask if this AAPL purchase is a real one or sarcastic, go hunt up the JPM post and read that again...

And no, I'm not picking on Carl. I'm just using his posts to make some points, and point out the 'sentiment' out there as I see it. His viewpoint, and approach, to me, is 100% typical, not the exception. No matter what the AAII, Rydex, or other indicators say, I can't find any of those bears that seem to dominate those sentiment indicators. Every last blog I read is super-duper bullish. All bulls, no bears, market weak, what does that tell you? I'm just saying, don't get sucked in and be a sucker, do your own work and weigh all this up.

And note that the last two years when the market was selling the VIX hit 48+. Right now, with this monster sell day it's 26 and change. The last two 'big' corrections (2010 and 2011) when the VIX was here the correction had another 150-200 point to go. That puts this at perhaps, drum roll... low 1100's. Hmmmm, didn't I just say my lower area was 1115? Hmmmmm. I'm not saying it will get there, only that there is a lot of evidence to support that premise, too, it isn't all obvious that these are bull conditions right here, as all the bulls say.

New low for the move as futures get ready to close. 73.50! I love this market! Now I'll watch the SPY for the next almost four hours and see if it goes to sleep, or if they keep selling this.

I forgot I posted this. LOD was 73.50. Not a bad read.

Originally posted by jimkane

74 (72-74, actually) is my next area to watch if this can take out the GZ and the LOD.

Here's what I had for AAPL at the recent high. This is just a framework, not a full workup, of course. I didn't label the one Fib because it is proprietary and not suited for a forum. You can see where this may go to, if it was to drop hard.




Here's why I am cautious right in here. The ES is way overdue for a bounce, Sunday night GLOBEX is coming up, and now this.





Charts created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.

Note that there is a lot more that can be done for this current AAPL area, including some incredible upsloping lines. The SPY is starting to rise strongly here, so I think everything is falling into place for a possible bounce on Sunday night/Monday, and all the bulls will say 'I told you so!'. It's all coming together nicely. We shall see. The weekend has a lot of time for something to go bad in Europe...

here you go....interesting spot to land on

Originally posted by jimkane

Can you update this chart, rat, to show how well it has moved since you did this capture?

Originally posted by rat89

it just doesn't get better than this.....the failure at 141 half area defined the entire move.....

Hmmmm. Hmmmm is my favorite expression today, it seems. Usually it's 'Amazing'. Anyway, the SPY has drifted back down to below the ES closing level. I'm not unhappy at all, just a bit surprised that they can't bounce this even in the aftermarket hours with nothing else trading. Very curious. I hope we see that 60-65 soon, preferably Sunday night, before we get 'the big bounce'. Then down into those 1100's, if I get my way.