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JI
jimkane
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Just a few quick comments for those that follow my methodology closely intraday. Watch this 48.50 low here very closely. If ever there was a technically nice setup that I didn't like based on 'context' and more the way it is behaving, it was the bearish ABCD from 14:01-2. And if it is to 'fail', this is the spot that would worry me the most. So, very soon we will know. It's not a done deal, only something I can surely 'sense', so I'm pointing it out so those that follow the methodology to the letter intraday can study this.
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
Now, watch right here to see if this was just a blow out the pattern move, or if this will sustain.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
A 'retest' of that level, but then 'Like I said...'
It sure bounced from area to area to area. Just technically amazing to me.
It sure bounced from area to area to area. Just technically amazing to me.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I know this is the trading thread, but I haven't started my own section lately, and no one reads the economic section, so I'm posting this here. I think he is spot on, saying many of the things I have been thinking for a long time now. He also points out something that I keep saying, and thinking more and more. In 'the old days' this 'bull' is statistically done. Over. And, unlike 'the old days', this one will not fall of its own weight, it will take a market shock event to turn the tides, in my opinion.
So, this may go another year, or even two years. It could be more, but the odds start to drop the longer it goes. And the longer it goes, the more catastrophic the implosion, again in my opinion. So, I'm still a mega-huge bull right now. Looking for those new highs, looking for much huger highs after that, looking for maybe two more years of up, all the while knowing 'the event', like it has been for years now, is just around the corner.
How far around the corner I can not even guess, since it will be a 'shock event' and a true black swan that tips this, I think. And once it goes, nothing will stop it, like any bubble. So, my thinking is assume up since the trend clearly has been up for just about four years straight, be aware of countertrend moves (which can be traded by those with a high enough level of skill to make that feasible) and where they may start from (i.e. where is it getting riskier to keep leaning on the long side), and be ready to get severely caught on the wrong side when the shock event happens (e.g. 9/11). In other words, same old, same old. Just my two cents.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-08/trends-watch-2013
So, this may go another year, or even two years. It could be more, but the odds start to drop the longer it goes. And the longer it goes, the more catastrophic the implosion, again in my opinion. So, I'm still a mega-huge bull right now. Looking for those new highs, looking for much huger highs after that, looking for maybe two more years of up, all the while knowing 'the event', like it has been for years now, is just around the corner.
How far around the corner I can not even guess, since it will be a 'shock event' and a true black swan that tips this, I think. And once it goes, nothing will stop it, like any bubble. So, my thinking is assume up since the trend clearly has been up for just about four years straight, be aware of countertrend moves (which can be traded by those with a high enough level of skill to make that feasible) and where they may start from (i.e. where is it getting riskier to keep leaning on the long side), and be ready to get severely caught on the wrong side when the shock event happens (e.g. 9/11). In other words, same old, same old. Just my two cents.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-08/trends-watch-2013