ES Monday 8-19-13

First thing to look at is the cash chart today...we traded down to the 50 day MA on the daily chart on lower volume on Friday...this is also back to the swing high from around June 18th we have possible support here ..
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next we have Fridays lows ( I mentioned 48 - 49 on Friday). This gets into the distribution from July 10th....with 1645 as an additional support is that day...
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and here is what I currently have in the overnight and Fridays session combined...1651.25 is my magnet price today....

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I want to be a buyer in the 48 - 49 zone ....knowing that they may possibly try to push down to the 45 area.....Weakness on a Friday often spills over to early short term weakness on Monday

It will all depend on where we push to and open at.....if we open in Firdays range and drive lower first before hitting fridays close than that will be a better first magnet price

The O/N high goes well with the Volume POC high from friday at 1655 but I think the 57 area is more important ...

so basically the 51.25 is the magnet and if we drive up to the 55 I will sell and the 57 is a sell area

I prefer to see early weakness that runs out of power to get long in the 48 - 49 and even the 44 - 45 area

There is no doubt in my mind that we will see either the 1645 number hit or the 1655 number hit....very high probability and I'd like it to be the 1655 after the early weakness gets expended...but the plan is to trade for that 51.25 magnet and anything else is just a bonus
because we opened right at the magnet everything becomes higher risk to is safer to see what happens under fridays RTH lows into the 48 - 49.25 or wait until that 1655 area prints before fading today

at a bare minimum have a rule that you want to see at least 2 points between your entry and the magnet price !! especially if you are a small account trader

so 49.25 on the downside and 53.25 on the upside....
not being a pig...if you got that long on take most off back here at the magnet again.....then try to hold for 53.25 and 55 but that may take a small miracle.....there is no real reason not to see the magnet print again
ultimately I think they want that 55 but we may have lots of noise to get's always best to take off contracts and be thankful...don't keep jumping back in just because you THINK a probability may happen.....

96 % the O/N high or low will print each day for example
I'm only holding one now to try to get that O/N high...see how they hit the 53 and came back to the magnet and it became support....interesting for us chart purists !!

folks love taking things off at swing highs and lows....I took something off at 53.25 because it was 2 points off the magnet but more importnat was that O/N swing at 53.50...I don't trust those things on the chart

this will probably be it for me.....that 51.25 holds the key in deciding which O/N range will get broken
there waa another test of the stop on this last runner is now right at the magnet...i will either get that 55 print or ANOTHER test of the magnet now will stop me out

I like those multiple 5 minute highs.....hope they will break that and bring in buyers
gotta keep a close eye on this...very hard to have a GOOD stop loss point when only .75 points away from a target and only one contract .....there is just so much noise in the ES!
just pulled the plug at 55.25..sure they can get that 57 and further but I always want to bank something as it moves...NOBODY knows what is going to happen