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jimkane
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Starting it off. Let's hope for another week with what I think are sensational potential trading opportunities (even if they are scum bag manipulated longs, over and over).
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jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
Just in case anyone thought I was the lone voice for sanity (outside of Zero Hedge and all those other sites I follow) in all my sarcasm about the market that never stops going up, or how it goes up without any corrections:
http://slopeofhope.com/2013/11/the-new-abnormal.html
http://slopeofhope.com/2013/11/the-new-abnormal.html
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jimkane
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Here's a quote from the comment section of the above article. This is what I have been saying, been struggling with, and hence been making so many sarcastic posts about the market:
"Short term profit, on the back of a carnivorous and nearly certain disastrous economic policy for this nation's future may not be considered "profit" by many of its more discerning people..............."
"Short term profit, on the back of a carnivorous and nearly certain disastrous economic policy for this nation's future may not be considered "profit" by many of its more discerning people..............."
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jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
A great viewpoint, in line with my own. He mentions the biggest question of all, one I have pondered for a long time now:
"Can the bubble burst as long as the central banks keep creating reserves and credit, or is that activity the 'fountain of youth' for bubbles?"
The answer from every last pundit, broker, analyst, blogger et al is 'No, the bubble (which they say isn't even a bubble, but a once in a lifetime undervalued market) can't burst when they are still printing'. But, the mathematics, which is pretty straightforward, says they must keep increasing the amount to produce the same effect. And bubbles burst in one shot, so once they start going, they go until they are deflated. Hence, any slowing of momentum will lead to the burst. Therefore, they need to increase the printing soon or this baby gives way. I expect we will see that soon, increasing incrementally to $150 bil/month in 2014, and then to $250 or even $350/bil/month in 2015. Hence my 'sarcastic' post about that $2-$4 tril/year. It was a mathematical call, not an emotional one. If they don't, it all goes.
The other question is, if they let it go, somehow thinking it won't go, or some triggering event happens, will they go to $500/bil or $1 tril/month to prop it back up? I think they would try. Of course that would lead to a faster collapse I would think (again, mathematically), not a prop up. But, they are so brain dead stoo-pid that they would do it anyway. This would lead to a rapid currency crisis, again in my opinion, and the start of worldwide Armageddon. The concern over that won't change their course, or response, though, one iota. This 'train, it won't stop going, no way to slow it down', to quote Jethro Tull. Anyway, my two cents, I'm only posting this stuff because I think it is directly trading related.
Here's the same quote I have mentioned many times in the past, and, again, I wish I could recall which famous guy from the early nineteen century said it. Paraphrased, it goes:
"As professional speculators, our job is to get on board a train headed for a cliff. The only difference between us and the regular sucker is that we plan to jump off right before the train goes over the cliff."
Nothing I have ever said is more apropos, more critical to grasp at this time, than this statement. Enjoy the bull side, play along with all the bulltards (a bulltard is a retarded bull, for those that don't understand the lexicon), but know you must jump off right before it goes over a cliff. And know that cliff may come fast and without warning, and as the train literally goes over the cliff, all the bulltards will be cheering the loudest they have ever cheered in their lives about how this means they are now experiencing the best opportunity of a lifetime. Mark my words, and make sure you are rolling around in the dirt a few feet from the cliff edge when you hear them...
http://slopeofhope.com/2013/11/the-new-abnormal.html#c1584138
"Can the bubble burst as long as the central banks keep creating reserves and credit, or is that activity the 'fountain of youth' for bubbles?"
The answer from every last pundit, broker, analyst, blogger et al is 'No, the bubble (which they say isn't even a bubble, but a once in a lifetime undervalued market) can't burst when they are still printing'. But, the mathematics, which is pretty straightforward, says they must keep increasing the amount to produce the same effect. And bubbles burst in one shot, so once they start going, they go until they are deflated. Hence, any slowing of momentum will lead to the burst. Therefore, they need to increase the printing soon or this baby gives way. I expect we will see that soon, increasing incrementally to $150 bil/month in 2014, and then to $250 or even $350/bil/month in 2015. Hence my 'sarcastic' post about that $2-$4 tril/year. It was a mathematical call, not an emotional one. If they don't, it all goes.
The other question is, if they let it go, somehow thinking it won't go, or some triggering event happens, will they go to $500/bil or $1 tril/month to prop it back up? I think they would try. Of course that would lead to a faster collapse I would think (again, mathematically), not a prop up. But, they are so brain dead stoo-pid that they would do it anyway. This would lead to a rapid currency crisis, again in my opinion, and the start of worldwide Armageddon. The concern over that won't change their course, or response, though, one iota. This 'train, it won't stop going, no way to slow it down', to quote Jethro Tull. Anyway, my two cents, I'm only posting this stuff because I think it is directly trading related.
Here's the same quote I have mentioned many times in the past, and, again, I wish I could recall which famous guy from the early nineteen century said it. Paraphrased, it goes:
"As professional speculators, our job is to get on board a train headed for a cliff. The only difference between us and the regular sucker is that we plan to jump off right before the train goes over the cliff."
Nothing I have ever said is more apropos, more critical to grasp at this time, than this statement. Enjoy the bull side, play along with all the bulltards (a bulltard is a retarded bull, for those that don't understand the lexicon), but know you must jump off right before it goes over a cliff. And know that cliff may come fast and without warning, and as the train literally goes over the cliff, all the bulltards will be cheering the loudest they have ever cheered in their lives about how this means they are now experiencing the best opportunity of a lifetime. Mark my words, and make sure you are rolling around in the dirt a few feet from the cliff edge when you hear them...
http://slopeofhope.com/2013/11/the-new-abnormal.html#c1584138
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
I had to get up for the European open and to see how they'd handle that. Is this the pop now that starts it back to the upside? Or will they grind it down for even better prices right before our open? Fascinating questions...
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
That pop off my area was indeed it, good enough for another strong new all-time high, one tick shy of 1800. Recall last time when the ES failed to take out the all-time high by a sliver, and the $SPX and the SPY had. Today the $SPX went over 1800, and the ES fell one tick shy and backed off. That is so odd, why they do that...
Originally posted by jimkane
I had to get up for the European open and to see how they'd handle that. Is this the pop now that starts it back to the upside? Or will they grind it down for even better prices right before our open? Fascinating questions...