I'll kick it off with a 'must watch' video. These are the same type of people who are doing all the talking right now. It can be shown over and over how wrong all these people are, analysts, politicians, central bankers, bloggers, all of them (I've seen videos showing what Greenspan and Bern-Qwacke have said, and they were so wrong over and over it was just crazy, and they are/were in charge of it all! And Old Yeller, she said she basically missed everything that has happened, and now she's going to be in charge!). Their track records are abysmal. Yet they make tens, hundreds of millions, are completely and utterly respected, and they get endless TV time. It is, perhaps, the thing that makes the least sense of everything I have ever seen in my entire life. Yet it is so, and I think will always be so.

http://slopeofhope.com/2013/12/a-sobering-look-behind-and-ahead.html

Nah, this doesn't matter. I think the market is primed for a doubling. Sarcasm aside, here's what will happen (okay, this is still sarcastic, but technically feasible, to me). The ES will pull back in, with a few panic days. The ratio will drop all the way to the bottom in a few days, and then be primed for the market to double. So, a 2-3% drop will move the ratio top to bottom, but it will then take a 100% rise to bring it back bottom to top. I'm just venting some anger here, but you get the idea.



Image source: http://slopeofhope.com/socialtrade/dynamic/file/full/14602

And here's a fun exercise. The 1.0x level is equal bulls and bears. To me, that would be a 'balanced' market. Mentally draw that line on the chart, and tell me where most of the data is. Above the line, by far. So, for the most part, bulls dominate, by a huge margin, pretty much all the time. The market has never been 'balanced' over time, and I believe never will be. It's just the way it is.

I know I said I'm not posting any economic links for awhile, sticking only with trading posts. I think this is related to what we may see this week with the Wednesday Fed announcement, and going forward into the super-duper-key Jan period. I'm not sure how this will be received by the market, but I think it will be important. I won't say 'we are close' because I thought we've been close for at least two years now. Maybe we'll be 'close' for another twenty, who knows. But, my evaluation of all the data is that we are on the edge, the house of cards is wobbling in a strong breeze, and the danger is very, very great. But, maybe the breeze subsides again, they steal more of our life's work and savings and our future, and the future of our kids and grandkids, and shore it up a little longer. The longer they shore it up, the more catastrophic it will be. Anyway, here's a summary of my thoughts from way back.

Okay, before you try to click, this link had a 'bad' word in it, and the software here doesn't like that. It used to just not show the link, now it puts **** in for the bad word. I will circumvent that by putting two xx's in below in the middle of the 'bad' word. Copy the link and delete them out, then paste it in your browser, or click it, get a page not found, and delete them in the browser address bar and hit go. Sorry, but the software is out of my control.

http://kunstler.com/clusterfxxuck-nation/timing-is-not-everything/

And here's what I was saying above about thinking it was ready to collapse year after year after year. I capitulated awhile back. I knew it was likely going to be not far off once I genuinely capitulated. The rest are starting to capitulate. I believe this will be very useful for timing.

http://slopeofhope.com/2013/12/the-bitchez-throw-in-the-towel.html

I am really liking this action. And I mean really liking it.

So, that was a nearly 12 point drop on a 1-min bar, with huge volume for a Sunday night. But, as always, it snaps right up off that, up to about the .786 of that bar, then settles in around the 50% level, with an upward looking grind. This is completely typical, and usually implies it's over, in my experience. At least for now. But, look where it went to on the drop...

The Pound is close to resistance level against longer term bullish area.

Pullback to .447 and then up?

I'm not sure we will see such a deep correction, but lines are free.

0.3 this time?

Originally posted by jimkane

I know everyone is gone, but just one more comment. These guys are just too funny. They gun it up in the short Friday after regular futures close session, and take out the HOD by one tick. Same old, same old. Like I said, it doesn't matter how much they made it look like it could roll over, it was pretty likely, I felt, that they would follow the same pattern they keep following. Another new all-time high, closing essentially at the high. Nothing ever changes with these maniacs, and until the system completely implodes (something I'm starting to think won't happen until long after I'm gone), I can't see it changing.

Jim,

Thank you for your great commentary!

Al Kamego