ES Wednesday 1-22-14

watching the test of 38.50....that is the key for bulls to hold so I prefer to be bullish to take out last weeks high today as long as that line holds....other number will be 41.25.....if wrong on the 38.50 then 34.75 will be critical but I think bulls are gonna win this...that was a big relative reversal yesterday off the lows
so my first trade is to try to find a way to get long to break the overnight high...I prefer to see a drop down first after RTH opens....hopefully we will get a chance
trying to buy 39.50 and 38.50...for a first try today...
all the volume building at 39 even...I took something off at opening range low as this was my second attempt on longs and wanted to book something....this is a difficult hold here and the fact that they tested our 41.25 off the open and sold off doesn't give me as much confidence.. ..they will break away from the 39 volume but I am not sure which O/N range they want to go for anymore......will try to hold two runners for the new high and On high...then hopefully call it a day.....
Bruce how many min is your opening range
one minute RB....on my third and final try to get the new highs and O/N high.........not going to trade past the first 90 minutes....that 39 is still a storng magnet but hoping the tests lower are over and washed out all those trying shorts under that 38.50 key number....just small wins today hoping to get this last one to run up but will be happy with what we get...a test of 37.25 will stop out runners on this last try....all they are doing so far is dragging it across that 38.50 - 39 so far so we need that to change to the upside
well that's it for me...runners stop again.......we are just stuck inside yesterdays range so not as much opportunity and it shows....they sure are now making it look like the O/N low players are gonna get their reward but I have no will get interesting under that On low if it breaks but I won't be trading it.....good luck ...there is a bigger low volume zone between 31.25 and 33.50.......all I know is that so far that 38 - 39 is still a it's hard to imagine a trend in any particular direction now...I would trade it as if it is a range with 38 - 39 as the center
putting on the lunchtime trade today...only two contracts and long from 35.75...risking to 33.50 ..value is building higher and we are consolidating above yesterdays POC....targets will be 40.75 and new weekly highs to make risk worth it.......we are still stuck so this is more of a gamble so very small contract play
a look at where we are stuck so far this week...a picture of the weekly profile as the week is developing.........all the volume on weekly basis is at 36.75 - this is a higher risk trade in general
Click image for original size
covered both at the push over 40.50.....probabilities suggest higher highs from here but I'm going to celebrate my daughters 5th birthday...ideal for anyone holding would be to keep it above 38.25 - 39.50 on any retrace now.....we also have a double top so that makes a retest back up even more likely.....usually highs don't form at this time of I think we will see those higher highs....good luck and c ya tomorrow
Thx for the post Bruce