RA
rat89
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Posts: 7,015
symmetry: .886 at the top on a gap open day and 1.128 at the bottom - to the penny
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MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
TD ABCD against major support area (60-67).
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RA
rat89
Rep: 0
Posts: 7,015
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JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Ah, but if one shorted the area, rode the decision time out, always at a lower level (essentially no heat), it worked wonderfully, eh? There is a point in my statement (as there almost always it).
MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
Yes, but it's difficult to sit on a trade once the initial reaction is almost completely retraced.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Yes, this is all a strategy issue. The market is doing what it is doing, and doing it off areas we seem to be able to find many times (just my opinion). Now, how can we take advantage of that in the best way? I quoted to my hedge fund guy many different movie and song lines when we did our work. The key ideas, many from a strategy perspective, are summed up in these lines (or I wouldn't be endlessly quoting them). Here is a very apropos quote, from Kenny Rogers' The Gambler:
"...You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run..."
"...Now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser..."
The point is, we make our money, I feel, by knowing how to handle, how to manage, what the market gives us. Although this can't be literally applied 'Every trade's a winner, and every trade's a loser', and we have to know what to do with what we have. Everyone who is struggling should ponder on this.
"...You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run..."
"...Now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser..."
The point is, we make our money, I feel, by knowing how to handle, how to manage, what the market gives us. Although this can't be literally applied 'Every trade's a winner, and every trade's a loser', and we have to know what to do with what we have. Everyone who is struggling should ponder on this.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
An additional hint to the above. In my opinion, people spend way too much time trying to find 'winners' as opposed to working with what they have. The comprehensive 'Trading Plan' is composed of small edges across the board, not one big edge anywhere. There is only so much that can be done with the setup. It's only 10%-20% of the 'Trading Plan' at the most. It kinda drives me crazy that even in my own forum the emphasis is still 99% on setup. One setup post after another. Management? That's comprised of stating the 'target'. Are you serious? I don't even have the word 'target' anywhere in my trading plan, and as anyone who has mentored with me should be able to attest to, I land on anyone who uses that word in my presence. Should one focus on the 10%-20% part of any plan (for anything) or the 80%-90%, if one had to choose, all things being equal (and I feel in an example like this they are, the 80/20 rule (the Pareto principle) does not apply to what I am saying here, the setup is not the key 20%)? Read this as many times as you have to to grasp what I am saying. It is not what anyone else (that I have ever seen) is saying.
Want another 'tip'? I have suggested this to many mentor students. You know how many have done it, that I know of? Zero. Zip. Nada. If I am worthy of being looked up to as a mentor, wouldn't students want to try everything I suggest is worth trying (I'm not talking about directing their trading, something I never do, I'm talking about sim trading practice techniques)? If I had a mentor and he said do this or that and see what you learn, I'd not sleep (literally) until I could tell him what I learned (or that I'd collapsed from exhaustion trying). Put the emphasis on practicing skills other than setups. Here's the concept.
Work up your charts across the timeframes, and understand the layout, just so you know where things stand. Now, take your practicing sim platform (I like NinjaTrader for this, but pretty much all platforms nowadays can do it), and stage a market order. Walk away and come back a few minutes later (this is so that you are fresh to the screen), flip a coin, heads you go long, tails short. Now go to work. Do the best you can with the situation. Talk about a way to practice developing 'feel' for being in a situation, this is it. Assess it. Manage it. Work it. Sometimes the best thing is instant closure. Sometimes I watch it for awhile, give it room, see how it is acting. Sometimes you can get a big winner out of it.
So, what does this do? It helps one develop skills other than endless setup focus. It also can show one that, perhaps, if they have all the other skills down pat, maybe they can be break even. Maybe even a little better. Imagine, even though it's sim, there may be no slippage (good platforms simulate slippage quite well), and so on, if you could be a little net positive with a random entry. How would you feel if you knew then that you could add on all your setup (and entry) skills to a plan that was already net positive? It's all about the balance of skills, not one monster skill in one area. Bodybuilding contests are won with symmetry, not one body part that is the biggest ever seen, and the rest like a 98-lb weakling. It's doesn't work that way. Yes, everything has to be developed, but the contest is won by the one who has the best overall package.
So, how many are in their simulators now, working on this? Zero? I have spent so many hours in the past doing this I can't even begin to count them all. If I thought it was worth the time, why aren't those that come to me for training doing it? You tell me...
Want another 'tip'? I have suggested this to many mentor students. You know how many have done it, that I know of? Zero. Zip. Nada. If I am worthy of being looked up to as a mentor, wouldn't students want to try everything I suggest is worth trying (I'm not talking about directing their trading, something I never do, I'm talking about sim trading practice techniques)? If I had a mentor and he said do this or that and see what you learn, I'd not sleep (literally) until I could tell him what I learned (or that I'd collapsed from exhaustion trying). Put the emphasis on practicing skills other than setups. Here's the concept.
Work up your charts across the timeframes, and understand the layout, just so you know where things stand. Now, take your practicing sim platform (I like NinjaTrader for this, but pretty much all platforms nowadays can do it), and stage a market order. Walk away and come back a few minutes later (this is so that you are fresh to the screen), flip a coin, heads you go long, tails short. Now go to work. Do the best you can with the situation. Talk about a way to practice developing 'feel' for being in a situation, this is it. Assess it. Manage it. Work it. Sometimes the best thing is instant closure. Sometimes I watch it for awhile, give it room, see how it is acting. Sometimes you can get a big winner out of it.
So, what does this do? It helps one develop skills other than endless setup focus. It also can show one that, perhaps, if they have all the other skills down pat, maybe they can be break even. Maybe even a little better. Imagine, even though it's sim, there may be no slippage (good platforms simulate slippage quite well), and so on, if you could be a little net positive with a random entry. How would you feel if you knew then that you could add on all your setup (and entry) skills to a plan that was already net positive? It's all about the balance of skills, not one monster skill in one area. Bodybuilding contests are won with symmetry, not one body part that is the biggest ever seen, and the rest like a 98-lb weakling. It's doesn't work that way. Yes, everything has to be developed, but the contest is won by the one who has the best overall package.
So, how many are in their simulators now, working on this? Zero? I have spent so many hours in the past doing this I can't even begin to count them all. If I thought it was worth the time, why aren't those that come to me for training doing it? You tell me...