1840 with the timing shown below looks very unlikely, but just in case...
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MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
The week close for ES was a bit shy off a typical W2 range, so maybe we will see a nice correction eventually, after a week of almost one direction market?
1840 with the timing shown below looks very unlikely, but just in case...
1840 with the timing shown below looks very unlikely, but just in case...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
As an aside, this is acting like new all-time highs will be forthcoming. I plan to be long-side bias unless I see something in the price action to tell me otherwise. Maybe I'll be dead 'wrong'. We'll see.
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
The very short-term timing of that comment is quite comical. I didn't imply that exact second was a new entry spot or anything, but it still has some serious comic potential the way it dropped right after that post. Too funny.
RA
rat89
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Posts: 7,015
this one is interesting. setting up for the next move up?
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rat89
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Posts: 7,015
they were running out of time to get price to the line....but they moved it in a hurry and landed it into an 18¢ fib box
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JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
One of the things that is different about this forum, in my opinion, is that I try to follow up, and not just on the impressive reads. I was way off on all this. I was duped, totally. I was the sucker at the table this time. In my opinion this doesn't happen to me too often, but it does happen. I find, again my own assessment and nothing more, no claims, that I am either dead on or dead opposite. I don't usually find myself anywhere in the middle.
Yes, I saw the area of the last post as a potential rollover spot (do the work, it is obvious), I just didn't think they'd do it (I thought they'd come in for better prices, then start right back up again, which, in a bigger sense, may be what just happened right now...). They did a great job making me think the strength was genuine. The duped me before, too. I saw the downside coming, but they ran it up first after a small shakeout. Then they convinced me the run was for real, when I'm usually skeptical. All this right before they do a monster huge dump. Call me 'Jim Chump'.
All is not lost, as it became pretty obvious they were doing a 'move right off the open' dealio, but it was not ideal. Holding a long would cost some additional giveback there, and then the opportunities on the short side were lessened by being on the long side 'giving it room' instead leaning short. The plan is to lean on something until it breaks. New highs kept coming and coming and coming. At some point they won't. The idea is to be 'wrong' one time, when it breaks (the thing it has been doing stops happening). This was that time. It's what trading is about.
Anyway, there are two points getting mixed up here. The key one is my read was way off. The second, one I didn't intend to make, was that it's really about the decisions one makes ('Every Hand's a winner, and every hand's a loser', and 'You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run'). Applying the techniques gets to be pretty basic, it's about the 'context filtering', which can be very experience-based, subjective, and the 'art' part of this game. As everyone saw here, it's not an exact science, and I get duped, too. I hope this helps. No 'My setups are 99% accurate, buy my expensive seminar and quit your job' here.
Yes, I saw the area of the last post as a potential rollover spot (do the work, it is obvious), I just didn't think they'd do it (I thought they'd come in for better prices, then start right back up again, which, in a bigger sense, may be what just happened right now...). They did a great job making me think the strength was genuine. The duped me before, too. I saw the downside coming, but they ran it up first after a small shakeout. Then they convinced me the run was for real, when I'm usually skeptical. All this right before they do a monster huge dump. Call me 'Jim Chump'.
All is not lost, as it became pretty obvious they were doing a 'move right off the open' dealio, but it was not ideal. Holding a long would cost some additional giveback there, and then the opportunities on the short side were lessened by being on the long side 'giving it room' instead leaning short. The plan is to lean on something until it breaks. New highs kept coming and coming and coming. At some point they won't. The idea is to be 'wrong' one time, when it breaks (the thing it has been doing stops happening). This was that time. It's what trading is about.
Anyway, there are two points getting mixed up here. The key one is my read was way off. The second, one I didn't intend to make, was that it's really about the decisions one makes ('Every Hand's a winner, and every hand's a loser', and 'You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run'). Applying the techniques gets to be pretty basic, it's about the 'context filtering', which can be very experience-based, subjective, and the 'art' part of this game. As everyone saw here, it's not an exact science, and I get duped, too. I hope this helps. No 'My setups are 99% accurate, buy my expensive seminar and quit your job' here.
13-Mar-2014 at 1:09 AM
Originally posted by jimkane
As an aside, this is acting like new all-time highs will be forthcoming. I plan to be long-side bias unless I see something in the price action to tell me otherwise. Maybe I'll be dead 'wrong'. We'll see.
13-Mar-2014 at 12:01 AM
Originally posted by jimkane
So, it's now 21 points off the nominal new LOD low. All I 'knew' was this was going to do at least 20+ points soon, and it did. I'm not fudging this read, take it with a grain of salt. It just had that manner about it that it has before a 20+ run is imminent. They had to drive it down for better prices first, but then they did it. It was just 'up' instead of down. Like I said, they better be careful or it will get crushed. They knew that. They made it look weak, they drove it down for better prices, then they ran it up. I wish I could get a better handle, consciously, what it is I pick up on when it's getting ready for a move. I don't 'see' all of them coming, only certain ones. Some subset has this 'look' to it when something is about to happen. I have tried to figure out exactly what it is, but I haven't yet...
