Starting it off.

Al Kamego

symmetry

Originally posted by rat89

symmetry

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rat,

Beautiful work! I could not help but notice the AB=CD as Point D drove down to to the 0.886 fibo area at 94.99. Hmmmm…. At this point it looks like the SPY may gap up at the open this morning…maybe.

Al Kamego

gone at .84

Originally posted by rat89

gone at .84

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rat,

Cool.

Al Kamego

Ready for a rise until close Friday pop. Let's see if it happens, or if the chop until close it is set up for plays out. I see further downside as the least likely scenario.

Watch, I'll be back in an hour saying how off I was on that read. Still, I guess, when looking at odds (something you don't hear others in here discussing much, even when this forum was kickin') is about probability, and not what most people do, look at things from a certainty standpoint. Even if the odds of an event are 1%, it still happens here and there. The only way to jugde oddsmaking (or, the track record of an oddsmaker) is to compare it to the actual probability distribution and see if they are doing something statistically unlikely i.e. they are better than random at figuring odds. So, as Marcin pointed out the other day, the lower probability events do happen.

So, why did I post this? Because I tend, in my experience, to be dead on or dead off. So, I am always alert that as soon as I post that it may do the low odds scenario straight off.

Let's see if that's it and now it snaps up. Nice trap set. Probably just chop until close, though.

See, exactly as I posted.

But, probably here it snaps back down. It's just a whipsaw trap. It may need just a little more before it comes out.

Get ready for the snap down.

So, it was pretty much chop.