Aussie and Cable may need one more push to the downside.
It seems that like ES, FX didn't drop to key area on Friday.

It's sometimes really that simple. Look back at the time stamps for those posts. My trigger was at 91.50, seriously. Look at the 1-min, and you can see why. Look how it was an easy run to before the open, and then scale out. Wait for the opening shakeout, and then reenter. This should have been clear, as I've discussed than many times before when it was laid out like this. As an aside, like I said, I rarely like to go against 20+ or 30+- point moves. There was an exception recently that I pointed out, where I said I just couldn't get away from it, and it was the point this big down move started from. Right now I got a trigger for a similar countertrend, but it isn't like the last one, this one is easy to get away from. Easy to ignore. I'm pointing it out, though, to say that if one was a highly (on the high end of highly) skilled trader, it is not an unreasonable place to try a 'scalp that might do a little something' trade. But, this one is easy to ignore, as it is almost the quintessential definition of a low probability trade.

Originally posted by jimkane

I'm headed back to bed, but that may have been it. Long with a trailing stop, that's the play, to my way of looking at things. Then see before the open where they went with it.

Originally posted by jimkane

And as that was posting, it popped. Looking a lot better now. But, the immediate trend right now is down, and this bounce is coming into the first area, so who knows. It's just way overdue for a short-term bounce, and it's set up for an overnight run. We'll see.

first target hit:

Watch closely here to see if they have no intention to let it come in at all.

I see now that my screen refreshed with my post that rat is all over this, too.

Anyway, again, I'd expect them to come in right in here if they want to hold this.

Pretty straightforward that they'd come in where they did. Nothing even slightly unexpected. Now, if, and this is an enormous if, they planned to let it come in, this is where I'd expect it to roll down. I'm not saying they might not choose another spot, maybe after a stronger fake up, but the odds would greatly favor this spot here, in my experience. I'm not seeing it, though.

I know that 30 is calling to them, and I know they want it, bad. But, can it do more than than a 34.50 point run in one shot? Well, it does have a decent correction on the way up, and it has passed the 'magical' 30+- move, so perhaps yes. That would make it an even 40 in one shot. I'm thinking probably.

The most important thing for me to point out is, it was a monster move, and it's the last two hours. It's actually been in chop for the last two hours, so it would be a 2.5 last hours chop, but that could happen. My guess is, it did its two hours of chop, and will spend the last half hour running up to 30, for an even 40 point run. I want to see how it acts when it gets the stops. I can 'see' this play, but it's still a tough one, to play for that last push on a 40 point day. Okay, there's the stop run, watch how it handles it. I'm not saying watch to see whether to get in, one would already be in as soon as it was clear it 'saw' the first area from the perspective of a short scalper. The reason to watch is to formulate a better stop plan. And, as I type this, it just showed me it was not just a stop run. It may not reach 30, but the character is not that of just a stop run.

30 should be fairly easy for it now.

Wow, it's already selling hard off the area. I am really loving this, but a bit surprised they'd go into the futures close that way. Awesome.